POLITICS

A very bad sign for Romney in Fairfax — Obama keeping even with his 2008 numbers

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Politics,Beltway Confidential,Timothy P. Carney

Northern Virginia gave Obama a net of 200,000 votes in 2008 — most of his 230,000-vote win statewide. Most of that margin came in Fairfax County.

I’m at Fairfax County Government Center watching the precinct votes come in, and it doesn’t look good for Romney. Every precinct that comes in shows Obama winning nearly exactly the same percentage of the vote he won four years ago.

Below are 14 of the early-reporting precincts. Now, be warned, the precinct lines aren’t the same as four years ago, and so it’s not a perfect comparison, but the sum of the data paint a picture.

 

 


ROMNEY OBAMA 20112 McCAIN OBAMA 2008
Vienna #4 406 620 368 620
Fort Hunt 805 773 713 688
Greensprings 639 789 601 749
Churchill 425 513 391 495
Cameron 279 446 264 416
Flint Hill 997 1058 1149 1373
Colvin 898 688 763 759
Fairview 1261 1821 1293 1751
Sideburn 1157 1054 1167 1047
Keene Hill 431 668 445 610
Ridgelea 403 428 413 435
Barcroft 304 511 640 925
Hollin Hall 774 886 528 579
Thoreau 532 700 485 650

So, Obama pulled 54.6% of the two-party vote (not counting third-party candidates) in these precincts four years ago. He pulled 54.1% from them this year.

If Obama wins Fairfax by 100,000 — and Northern Virginia by 150,000 — it’s hard to see how Romney wins Virginia.

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