Northern Virginia gave Obama a net of 200,000 votes in 2008 — most of his 230,000-vote win statewide. Most of that margin came in Fairfax County.
I’m at Fairfax County Government Center watching the precinct votes come in, and it doesn’t look good for Romney. Every precinct that comes in shows Obama winning nearly exactly the same percentage of the vote he won four years ago.
Below are 14 of the early-reporting precincts. Now, be warned, the precinct lines aren’t the same as four years ago, and so it’s not a perfect comparison, but the sum of the data paint a picture.
| ROMNEY | OBAMA 20112 | McCAIN | OBAMA 2008 | |
| Vienna #4 | 406 | 620 | 368 | 620 |
| Fort Hunt | 805 | 773 | 713 | 688 |
| Greensprings | 639 | 789 | 601 | 749 |
| Churchill | 425 | 513 | 391 | 495 |
| Cameron | 279 | 446 | 264 | 416 |
| Flint Hill | 997 | 1058 | 1149 | 1373 |
| Colvin | 898 | 688 | 763 | 759 |
| Fairview | 1261 | 1821 | 1293 | 1751 |
| Sideburn | 1157 | 1054 | 1167 | 1047 |
| Keene Hill | 431 | 668 | 445 | 610 |
| Ridgelea | 403 | 428 | 413 | 435 |
| Barcroft | 304 | 511 | 640 | 925 |
| Hollin Hall | 774 | 886 | 528 | 579 |
| Thoreau | 532 | 700 | 485 | 650 |
So, Obama pulled 54.6% of the two-party vote (not counting third-party candidates) in these precincts four years ago. He pulled 54.1% from them this year.
If Obama wins Fairfax by 100,000 — and Northern Virginia by 150,000 — it’s hard to see how Romney wins Virginia.
