Gallup released a memo earlier this week titled, "Where the U.S. Election Stands Now," comparing past presidential approval ratings with each candidates reelection results. Gallup concluded:
This historical pattern suggests that Obama would need to see his job approval rating climb to 50% to be in a comfortable position for re-election. History shows that by March of the election year, all winning presidents in the modern era, including George W. Bush, had job approval ratings above 50%, and all losing presidents had job approval ratings below 50%. This suggests that where Obama stands by next month may be an important indicator of his ultimate re-election chances.
According to Gallup's most recent daily tracking poll, Obama's current approval rating is even at 47 percent. He has not been over 50 percent since Osama bin Laden was killed last May.