If Mitt Romney pulls out a win in Ohio, it will be a good night for him. But the broader Super Tuesday results show that he still has a big problem attracting support among evangelical voters.
Here's how the evangelical vote looked in three states voting tonight, according to CNN exit polls:
OHIO: Santorum 47%, Romney 31%
TENNESSEE: Santorum 40%, Romney 24%, Gingrich 24%
OKLAHOMA: Santorum 41%, Romney 24%, Gingrich 24%
It's no surprise Rick Santorum has now been projected to win Oklahoma and Tennessee, where evangelicals made up 72 percent and 73 percent of the electorate, respectively. Yet in Ohio, where the electorate was just 46 percent evangelical, Romney could edge it out. The bottom line: evangelicals are still soft on Romney, and where they make up a critical mass of the electorate, he loses.
As I detailed earlier today, the Israel issue may be a way for him to energize these voters to turnout for him in the general election.