EACH NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE Estimate offers a snapshot of the current situation with prognostications for the future. One way to assess the significance of the most recent NIE is to compare its language on key points with that of the January 2007 NIE. Many of the problems remain, of course, but much progress has clearly been made. One thing remains absolutely constant, however: in January, the Intelligence Community assessed that a rapid U.S. withdrawal would lead to disaster and in August it came to precisely the same conclusion. Below are some paired selections from each NIE on key topics.
The Security Situation
January:
Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006.
