A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin out today tells pretty much the same story as the PPP poll did yesterday: Gov. Scott Walker is up on Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by about 5 points (Marquette has the race at 50-44, PPP had it at 50-45).
Perhaps more interesting are the presidential numbers from both polls. The PPP poll showed President Obama with a narrow 47-46 lead while Marquette has them tied at 46. That is a 13- to 14-point swing from Obama's 56-42 2008 victory over McCain in the state.
Let's give Obama the benefit of the doubt and say things have only swung against him by just 13 points, meaninf he'd still squeak by in Wisconsin 50-49. What would the 2012 map look like? According to 270 to Win it would mean a 321 to 217 Electoral College victory for Romney.