He might have missed the hooplah following President Obama ordering spicy mustard on his burger, or the rumor about how he had a flag removed from Ground Zero, or even complaints about how much basketball he plays, but Brendan Nyhan seems sure that — mathamatically speaking — Obama is due for a major scandal, and he's released a study to prove it.

As a guest columnist on Sabato's Crystal Ball Thursday, he wrote "Few presidents avoid scandal for as long as [Obama] has.

In the 1977-2008 period, the longest that a president has gone without having a scandal featured in a front-page Washington Post article is 34 months — the period between when President Bush took office in January 2001 and the Valerie Plame scandal in October 2003. Obama has already made it almost as long despite the lack of a comparable event to the September 11 terrorist attacks."