The world’s oceans may not be receding, but President Obama’s convention bounce appears to be. After just the first night of the Democratic National Convention, his Gallup approval rating jumped from 47/47 to 49 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove. By the end of the convention it had risen to 52/42, a high Obama had not achieved since Osama bin Laden was killed in May 2011 (which got mentioned quite a lot last week by the way).
Obama’s Gallup head-to-head numbers followed his approval numbers up, from 47/46 when the convention started, to 50/44 today. But his approval rating is already coming back down to earth. It fell from a net +10 Saturday to just a net +6 (50/44) Sunday. Just as Obama’s approval rating was a leading indicator of Obama’s head-to-head match-up gain on the way up, expect his falling approval rating to be a leading indicator on the way down.
So now that Obama’s bump seems to be dissipating, where are we?
When Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate on August 12th, dubbing themselves America’s Comeback Team, the Real Clear Politics poll average had Obama beating Romney by almost 5 points (47.7 percent to 43 percent). Today, even after Obama’s convention bump, RCP has Obama’s lead narrowed to less than 2 (47.8 percent to 46 percent). Don’t like RCP? Well the more liberal Huffington Post Pollster poll average had Obama up 46.8 to 45.1 when Romney picked Ryan. Today, HuffPo has Obama up by less than 1 point, 46.8 to 46.1.
Don’t let anyone fool you: this is a close election. It will be decided by two events: 1) the first debate between Obama and Romney on October 3rd; and 2) the next jobs report October 5th. As long as Romney comes out and shows he is a human, likeable and competent guy, not the bumbling, bloodsucking homicidal vampire Obama says he is, Romney will do fine in the debate. And if the next jobs report is as terrible as the one released Friday, showing that the number of Americans with jobs has already decreased for two consecutive months, the American people will see that Obama isn’t working.
That and hundreds of millions in television advertising give Romney/Ryan a very real chance of completing the comeback they started in August.
Obama: President Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised $114 million in August, $3 million more than Romney’s $111 million. – Obama told CBS News that won’t compromise on his “balanced approach” to budget. – Obama told a Florida audience that all products should be, “Stamped with 3 proud words. Made in the USA!” – And Joe Biden cuddled with a biker in Ohio.
Romney: Mitt Romney told Meet the Press yesterday that, “I say we are going to replace Obamacare. And I am replacing it with my own plan.” But he later worried some conservatives when he said there were “a number of things I like about [Obamacare]” and would keep. The Romney campaign will also begin airing ads in Wisconsin.
Missouri Senate: Local TV stations in Missouri are pulling television ads from Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., for lack of payment.
From The Washington Examiner
Tim Carney: Democrats flout Constitution, go on the warpath
Phil Klein: Confronted with audio, DWS makes another erroneous statement about the Washington Examiner
Conn Carroll: The Obama recovery is rapidly descending into the Obama recession
In Other News
CBS Chicago, No Deal To Avoid Strike, Teachers Will Hit Picket Lines: Chicago Public Schools teachers were preparing to go on strike for the fist time in a quarter century on Monday, after the latest contract talks broke down Sunday with no deal to avert a walkout.
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Plans $18 Billion Sale of AIG Stock: The Treasury Department said it would sell $18 billion of American International Group Inc. stock in a public offering, slashing its stake by more than half and making the government a minority shareholder for the first time since the financial crisis was roaring in September 2008.
Reuters, Thousands of Greeks protest against new round of austerity cuts: Thousands of Greeks marched at an annual fair in Greece’s second-biggest city on Saturday to protest against a new round of wage and pension cuts demanded by international lenders in exchange for aid to stave off bankruptcy.
The Weekly Standard‘s Jay Cost argues that Obama was weaker going into his convention than many believe.
Kathleen Parker labels MSNBC the Democrats official mouthpiece.
Mort Zuckerman says Friday’s jobs reports is much worse than it looks.
Think Progress attacks Romney for saying his plan does not cut taxes on the rich.
The Atlantic‘s James Fallows thanks CBS’s Norah O’Donnell for repeating leftist smears against Paul Ryan.
Paul Krugman reminds Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., that government employment per capita has fallen under Obama.