President Obama has surged ahead of Mitt Romney nationally and in a slew of important swing states since the Democratic National Convention. His current 4 point lead over Romney in the Real Clear Politics poll average is his biggest since depths of the Republican primary this April.
But what is driving this Obama resurgence? Are Republicans losing faith? Are independents leaning to Obama? Nope. Obama’s entire bounce seems to be coming entirely from a surge in Democratic enthusiasm. Gallup, who currently shows a six point Obama lead, reports: “Voter enthusiasm in [swing] states has grown among members of both political parties; however, Democrats’ level has increased more. Thus, whereas equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans were enthusiastic in June, Democrats are now significantly more enthusiastic than Republicans, 73% vs. 64%.”
And why are Democrats so enthused? Well, apparently, they think the economy has suddenly become awesome. Gallup also reports: “Democrats’ economic confidence continues to grow in the second half of September, building on a sharp increase that coincided with the Democratic National Convention. … Democrats’ 10-point increase in economic confidence last week contributed to the overall Gallup Economic Confidence Index’s holding steady near the highest level seen this year.”
However, Republicans and Independents do not share the Democrats’ assessment of our current situation. According to Gallup, “Independents’ economic confidence dropped four percentage points in the week ending Sept. 23, tempering a sharp increase in the group’s economic confidence that also coincided with the start of the Democratic convention. At the same time, at -60, Republicans’ overall confidence in the economy declined, and is once again tied for the lowest it has been since November 2011.”
So while some Independents also experienced a brief departure from reality after the Democratic National Convention, they have since come back to earth. The Democrats, however, are still in fantasy land. Meanwhile. back in the real world, The Wall Street Journal reports:
The U.S. economy remains shaky, with threats looming at home and abroad, manufacturers mired in a slump and overall growth tepid.
The economy’s precarious position was underscored Thursday by a pair of government reports. Orders for durable goods—long-lasting manufactured products such as cars and televisions—tumbled 13% in August from July, the biggest monthly drop in more than three years.
The manufacturing slowdown would be less worrisome if other segments of the economy were firing on all cylinders. But another report Thursday provided a separate reminder of how weak the recovery has been. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of all goods and services produced, grew at a 1.3% seasonally adjusted annual pace in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said, down from its previous estimate of 1.7% and slower than the first quarter’s 2% pace.
We’ll see if Democrats can ignore economic reality through election day.
From The Washington Examiner
Examiner Editorial: The Obama Wall Street bailout continues
Susan Ferrechio: Dems join chorus questioning Obama on attack
Byron York: Passed-over Portman shines in Ohio campaign
Joel Gehrke: Senate Dems tout ‘deeply destructive’ sequestration bill as their ‘accomplishment’
Charlie Spiering: Where do “Obama phones” come from?
Polls: New NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls show Obama beating Romney 49 percent to 47 percent in Nevada, 48 percent to 46 percent in North Carolina, and 51 percent to 44 percent in New Hampshire. A new Suffolk University poll shows Obama up 46 percent to 44 percent in Virginia.
In Other News
USA Today, Buyers and automakers raise doubts about electric cars: Having largely exhausted a pool of electric-car devotees as buyers, automakers are facing headwinds in trying to make plug-in cars a mass-market product.
The Wall Street Journal, Netanyahu Demands ‘Red Line’ on Iran: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran was on track to build an atomic bomb by summer of 2013 and exhorted the U.S. and other global powers to set a strict limit on Tehran’s nuclear fuel production as the clear “red line” that would trigger military strikes.
The New York Times, Security Fears Hobble Inquiry of Libya Attack: Sixteen days after the death of four Americans in an attack on a United States diplomatic mission here, fears about the near-total lack of security have kept F.B.I. agents from visiting the scene of the killings and forced them to try to piece together the complicated crime from Tripoli, more than 400 miles away.
The Washington Post, Attack on U.S. Consulate in Libya determined to be terrorism tied to al-Qaeda: U.S. intelligence agencies have determined that the attack on the U.S. mission in Libya involved a small number of militants with ties to al-Qaeda in North Africa but see no indication that the terrorist group directed the assault, U.S. officials said Thursday.
AEI‘s James Pethokoukis says 2012 may be the worst non-recession, non-depression year in the history of the United States.
William Jacobson has found a case where Elizabeth Warren practiced Massachusetts state law without a Massachusetts law license.
Americans for Tax Reform has compiled a full list of Obamacare tax hikes.
Think Progress says the free “Obama phone” is an urban myth.
Talking Points Memo details Romney’s “love-hate relationship” with Romneycare.
Jonathan Chait says Romneys 47 percent troubles are well deserved.