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POLITICS

2012 exit polls to skew heavily Democratic

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Politics,Beltway Confidential,Conn Carroll

The media consortium that organizes the national exit poll has decided not to do full exit polls in 19 states, 16 of which are expected to vote for Mitt Romney.

At least some exit polling will be done in all 50 states, and the consortium is paying for full samples in 31 states. But 19 states will only get “bare bones” polling “to help predict the outcome of races.” According to the Associated Press not enough polling will be done in these 19 states “to draw narrative conclusions about the vote – what issues mattered most to women voting for Mitt Romney, for instance, or how many Catholics voted for Barack Obama.”

“What we are doing is taking our resources and using them where the stories are,” said Sheldon Gawiser, NBC’s elections director and head of the steering committee for the consortium, told the Associated Press.

But the states “where the stories are” skew heavily toward President Obama and the Democratic Party. Of the 19 states not getting full exit poll treatment, 16 are expected to go for Romney, including, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. Only three tiny blue states Delaware, Hawaii, and Rhode Island will get the bare bones treatment (the District of Columbia will also not be fully polled). Despite no competitive statewide races, the mammoth blue states of California, Illinois, and New York will all be fully polled.

 

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