POLITICS

Since switching to likely voter screen, Gallup has never gotten the electoral college winner wrong

By |
Politics,Beltway Confidential,Conn Carroll

Gallup has been polling presidential elections since 1936 and has only failed to predict the winner of the electoral college twice: in 1948 when they had New York Gov. Thomas Dewey beating President Harry Truman 45 percent to 41 percent, and 1976 when they had President Gerald Ford beating then-Gov. Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 46 percent.

But since switching to a likely voter screen in 1992, the candidate leading Gallup’s final poll has won the electoral college every time.

1992 Gallup: Clinton 49, Bush 37, Perot 14
1992 electoral college: Clinton 370, Bush 168

1996 Gallup: Clinton 48, Dole 40, Perot 6
1996 electoral college: Clinton 379, Dole 159

2000 Gallup: Bush 47, Gore 45, Nader 4
2000 electoral college: Bush 271, Gore 266

2004 Gallup: Bush 49, Kerry 47
2004 electoral college: Bush 286, Kerry 251

2008 Gallup: Obama 53, McCain 42
2008 electoral college: Obama 365, McCain 173

2012 Gallup: Romney 49, Obama 48
2012 electoral college: ???

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