“Our guesstimate of Romney’s delegate edge--49 over Santorum--comes almost entirely from Virginia. Subtract out Virginia, and Super Tuesday becomes essentially a draw,” said the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, whose “Crystal Ball” analysis has a good track record.
Sabato has Santorum winning Oklahoma and Tennessee and collecting 163 delegates overall Tuesday. He has Romney winning Virginia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Vermont and Idaho, for 212 delegates. That would keep Santorum and Romney close in delegates and still far from the 1,144 needed to clinch the nomination.
And after Tuesday’s contests, Santorum looks good, leading in the polls in Texas, which has 155 delegates.