Experts following the Virginia Senate race said Democratic challenger Jim Webb’s failure to form a solid identity in the eyes of voters could benefit Republican incumbent George Allen, who is an established political figure in the state.
A recent Mason-Dixon poll shows Webb trailing Allen by four points, 47 percent to 43 percent, two weeks before the election. According to the poll, Allen leads in all areas of Virginia except Northern Virginia, where Webb holds a 10-point lead.
The poll has a margin of error of four percentage points. Earlier polls showed the two in a dead heat.
“This whole campaign to a large degree has rotated around Allen,” said George Washington University political science professor Steve Balla. “Webb needs to frame the debate. I don’t think he’s been able to effectively articulate who he is and what his candidacy is all about.”
He said the four point lead should not be taken as an indication Allen is pulling ahead.
“There’s enough uncertainty about the [poll] that it isn’t something I want to take to the bank,” he said.
George Mason political scientist Toni Travis said she thinks the race will be close, but it will be difficult for Webb to win without a late campaign push.
“Webb is not pushing hard enough,” she said. “It should be a real knock down, drag out [race] at this point.”
Another factor that could play into the elections outcome is the endorsement of Richmond Democratic Mayor and popular black leader Doug Wilder. Travis said his endorsement — which would likely be of Webb — could play a significant role in how blacks, especially blacks in Richmond, vote. Webb trails Allen by 17 points in the Richmond metro area.
“It’s [Wilder’s] timing,” Travis said. “If he’s going to do it, be better do it soon.”
Darcy Hickman, an official with Wilder’s press office, said she was not aware of any planned announcement.
“I don’t know if that’s going to be something that’s coming later,” she said. “It hasn’t come yet.”
