Who: New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman

What: He predicted that a third party, Americans Elect, would do to politics what "Amazon.com did to books" and "the iPod did to music."

Why it's dim: Americans Elect was always a pet project for out-of-touch liberal columnists with no real clue how the political system works, funded by people with too much time and money.

Cure: If you cherish a reputation as someone who identifies emerging trends, then best not to identify them in every fly-by-night political venture.