Six years after a major failure in a different European capital, Obama administration officials can sip champagne this weekend in Paris over a climate change agreement they claim gave them exactly what they wanted.
“I don’t think we had to cave on anything, actually,” a senior White House official said Saturday.
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The Paris Agreement is a win for Obama’s international agenda, despite expected backlash from Republicans in Congress.
Administration officials claim U.S. negotiators shaped the talks in their favor, citing legal elements in the deal that can be put into place with executive actions.
But the most significant elements — greenhouse gas emissions cuts and financial support for developing countries — are toothless. There will be no penalty for countries that don’t contribute to the so-call Green Climate Fund. Additionally, while countries are subject to review on how they’re progressing on their greenhouse gas reductions, they face no penalties if they fail to meet their targets.
That’s the only way the Paris Agreement could have happened, according to another senior White House official who spoke on background to reporters Saturday evening.
“There would be many developing countries that would balk at doing legally-binding [emissions] targets for themselves,” he said.
The White House painted Saturday’s agreement as the culmination of six years of strategy since the failure in 2009 at Copenhagen. That conference failed to produce an agreement.
That same year, the Senate killed Obama’s plan for cap-and-trade emissions legislation.
Those failures spurred the White House to alter their approach. Domestically, they advanced EPA regulations targeting various emitters. That culminated with the Clean Power Plan, carbon dioxide emissions reduction goals for states on new and existing power plants.
Internationally, the administration worked to cut an emissions deal with China and sought support from other states. By the start of the Paris talks, 186 countries accounting for 95 percent of global emissions had come to the conference with plans on reducing their carbon emissions.
“We now have a framework to drive progress but it will be up to countries … to actually make good on the ambition,” a White House official said.
But, that framework still has holes, greens and conservatives alike noted.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is running for Democratic presidential nomination, said Saturday that the deal does not go far enough. Other countries need to commit to their reductions with the same amount of verve that the Obama administration uses to commit the United States, he said.
Conservatives, concerned about Obama’s use of regulations to advance his climate change plans, questioned whether other countries would comply with the Paris Agreement without stronger enforcement tools. Their concern is the United States will damage its economy with environmental regulations while other nations surge ahead.
The senior White House officials said that is not going to happen.
“We’ve now been here in Paris for some time, 195 countries represented by parties, political parties, of varying [ideology], conservative and liberal parties from across the globe,” one official said. “It is striking that in this forum, with a global agreement in place, the world has moved way beyond this argument.”
The agreement seeks to hold global temperature rise “well below” 2 degrees Celsius, about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, with an eye toward keeping it below 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.
It’s a difficult goal: The globe has already warmed 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, above pre-industrial levels. The commitments from countries at the conference would only limit global temperature rise to 2.7 degrees Celsius, or nearly 5 degrees Fahrenheit.
The senior officials argued the world was on the path for a 3.6 degree Celsius increase a year ago, but the current commitments from countries already lessened the rise in global temperature.
“That’s a huge improvement, just on the strength of these [commitments],” one senior White House official said.
All of these officials’ work can be undone in 2017 if a Republican takes the White House. The reliance on executive action, instead of congressional approval, means the stakes for the 2016 presidential election include Obama’s environmental legacy.
But the White House hopes the Paris Agreement outlasts Obama. Despite the shaky ground that it relies on domestically, the officials said public pressure, domestic and international, will stop the United States from tanking the deal.
“The tide of history is moving with us,” one official said. “The public opinion polls indicate this, the willingness of people around the country to act … you’re seeing more and more action. I think that this agreement will propel that forward.”
“The message is the leaders of the world have taken this issue to heart. And there’s no turning back.”
