DCCC looking nervous in Oregon

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Politics,Beltway Confidential,David Freddoso

It's not getting much attention, but there is another special House election coming up, to replace the erratic former Rep. David Wu, D-Ore.

The all-by-mail vote ends January 31, but National Journal Hotline's Reid Wilson reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already dropped $487,000 to keep the district in Dem hands, even though it gave President Obama 61 percent of its vote in 2008.

Why are the Dems nervous? Wilson explains:

Special elections don't always follow the same rules normal elections follow. If the departed member who caused the special election left because of a scandal, the other party has a very good track record of picking up the seat. In recent years, ex-Reps. Eric Massa, D-N.Y., Chris Lee, R-N.Y., and Anthony Weiner,D-N.Y., have all resigned under ethical clouds, then watched their districts swing to the other party in the subsequent special election

...Can Republicans win in deep-blue Oregon? The possibility, at least, is enough to force Democrats to spend some early money.

It's worth noting that the results will become known the same day as the Florida primary. If a Republican challenger decisively seizes command of the race on that day, and Republicans pick this House seat up on the same day, it would be something of a black eye for President Obama.

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