“We generally sense that the Russian military movement, not just this convoy, but the overarching movement on Kyiv is stalled at this point.”

EARLY RUSSIAN STRUGGLES IN UKRAINE RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT PUTIN’S NEXT STEPS

‘REGROUPING, RETHINKING, REEVALUATING’: The bad news for Ukraine is that with its ground game temporality stalled, Russia is amping up its air and missile strikes, which have not only targeted military objectives, such as Kyiv’s main television tower, but have also hit residential areas, either by accident or design, killing dozens of civilians in Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv, which is looking more like a war zone every day.

And while the Russian ground forces may look inept at the moment, there is still time for them to get their act together. “They are possibly regrouping, rethinking, reevaluating,” the Pentagon official said. “The Russians assembled, and have at their disposal, still significant combined arms combat power.”

The Pentagon estimates that 80% of Russia’s “pre-staged combat power” has now moved across the border into Ukraine. “They will continue to adjust and adapt and try to overcome these challenges that they have been facing. And they have a lot of power available to them still.”

‘WARS ARE WON OR LOST PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF LOGISTICS’ — DWIGHT EISENHOWER: Radio transmissions over unsecured walkie-talkies intercepted by a British intelligence company reveal the anger and frustration of front-line Russian troops over the resupply problems, according to a report in the U.K.’s Daily Telegraph. 

In one recording, a Russian soldier is heard complaining bitterly about running out of supplies of food and fuel. “We’ve been here for three days! When the hell is it going to be ready?”

A Twitter video shows an almost humorous encounter between a Ukrainian and a Russian tank crew stranded and out of gas.

“We don’t know exactly why they’re having the logistics and sustainment problems. Was it a failure of planning and pre-positioning, or has it been a failure in the execution?” the Pentagon official said. “There could be lots of reasons for this, not to mention the resistance.”

‘FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD’ — VIRGIL: The Pentagon says many of Russia’s front-line troops are young, inexperienced, and easily spooked. They’ve seen helicopters shot down and convoys destroyed, and they are not eager to charge into battle.

“Units are surrendering, sometimes without a fight, and a lot of these soldiers are conscripts, never been in combat before. Some of them, we believe, weren’t even told they were going to be in combat,” the senior defense official said.

There are reports of Russian soldiers refusing to obey orders while others have walked away from battle.

At the United Nations Monday, Ukraine’s ambassador read aloud a text message purportedly from a Russian soldier’s phone. “We were told we would be greeted with open arms, but they call us fascists,” the young soldier texted his mother. “This is a real war. I’m scared, we’re firing at everyone, even civilians.”

Other reports suggest some Russian troops are intentionally puncturing the fuel tanks of their vehicles so they will run out of gas before they can reach the front lines.

The Pentagon could not confirm those reports but didn’t dispute them, noting there has been a clear hesitancy by Russian commanders to move their ground troops into combat.

“There has been, in the last six days, evidence of a certain risk-averse behavior by the Russian military,” said the official. “They are not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own aircraft and their own pilots.”

“It doesn’t mean that they aren’t taking risks. I’m not saying that they’re risk-free, but that we see, in general, they’re making decisions that sort of connote to being fairly risk-averse here in the early days. That’s an important point — these are early days.”

RUSSIAN TROOPS ‘RISK AVERSE’ FOR THEMSELVES BUT NOT UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS

‘AN ARMY MARCHES ON ITS STOMACH’ — NAPOLEON: Another big problem is a lack of rations. “We are also picking up signs that they’re having problems feeding their troops,” the senior official said. “Not only are they running out of gas, but they are running out of food.”

Twitter photos show out-of-date military rations issued to Russian troops, and in one case, security camera footage shows troops looting a local grocery store.

On the Russia-Ukraine border, a CNN correspondent and his videographer have noticed locals ferrying food to the border checkpoint.

“We have actually been seeing local people bring food and water to the last checkpoint before you get to that battlefield in Kharkiv,” said CNN’s Fred Pleitgen. “And then, at some point, we saw them load the food into a military vehicle and race toward that area of the front line.”

“Our camerawoman, Claudia, kept telling me, ‘I think they’re bringing it to the soldiers,’” said Pleitgen. “Whether or not that means that they’re having supply problems, whether or not people are just donating stuff, is really something that we can’t say from our vantage point.”

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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: At 2 p.m. Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will join with fellow Republicans in the Senate Radio-TV Gallery to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine and Republican efforts to support the Ukrainian people and punish Putin. The press conference will be streamed on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SenateGOP

BIDEN: PUTIN ‘HAS NO IDEA WHAT’S COMING’: In his State of the Union address last night, President Joe Biden denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion as “premeditated and unprovoked,” and Biden announced the U.S. will join the EU and Canada in banning Russian air travel and unveiled a “dedicated task force” to go after the “ill-begotten gains” of Russian oligarchs.

“We’re joining with European allies to find and seize their yachts, their luxury apartments, their private jets,” Biden said, “and tonight I’m announcing that we will join our allies in closing off American air space to all Russian flights, further isolating Russia and adding additional squeeze on their economy.”

“He has no idea what’s coming. The ruble has already lost 30% of its value. The Russian stock market has lost 40% of its value, and trading remains suspended. The Russian economy is reeling, and Putin alone is the one to blame.”

BIDEN CONDEMNS PUTIN AND SWIPES AT TRUMP IN STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

ZELENSKY: ‘ALMOST 6,000 RUSSIANS DIED’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed today that so far, Ukraine has killed almost 6,000 Russian troops in the first week of fighting.

“Think of this number: Almost 6,000 Russians died. To get what? Get Ukraine? It is impossible,” Zelensky said. “This is not to be changed by missiles, bombs, tanks, any strikes. We are in our native land. And for the war against us there will be an International Tribunal for them.”

The claim cannot be independently verified, but if true, it would be more than twice the number of U.S. troops killed in action in 20 years of war in Afghanistan.

‘THE GUERRILLA WINS IF HE DOES NOT LOSE’ — HENRY KISSINGER: It is an axiom of counter-insurgency that the side with the strongest motivation wins, regardless of which side has the most military might.

“The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose,” is the full version of the Kissinger quote about the Vietnam War.

“Putin can’t win,” says Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who argues Putin is headed toward either a “very costly military victory or a quagmire,” and that any victory would be pyrrhic. “He’s going to have to stay there forever and face an insurgency. He’s not just fighting another military. He’s fighting 40-something-million people that don’t want his forces there.”

“No matter what he does, he will never be able to install some puppet traitor government that he can just get up and leave, and leave them behind, because the Ukrainians will overthrow them and kill those people, Rubio, vice chairman of the select committee on intelligence, said on MSNBC. “I don’t know why we can’t begin to openly say, we will support them as long as they are willing to fight, even if it’s an insurgency.”

ZELENSKY ASSASSINATION PLOT AVERTED, UKRAINE SAYS

‘THE URBAN DEFENDER HAS THE ADVANTAGE’ — JOHN SPENCER: “This rule is first among equals,” writes Spencer in his “Eight Rules Of Urban Warfare,” published last year on West Point’s Modern War Institute website.

Col. Spencer is the chairman of urban warfare studies at the institute and was on CNN yesterday dispensing free advice to the freedom fighters of Kyiv, who may soon face off with Russian troops hunting down the people Putin has declared enemies of his state.

“They’re superior in military technologies, they’re superior in numbers, well, guess what? In the urban terrain, that doesn’t matter. We call the urban terrain the great equalizer,” Spencer said, outlining how he, an expert in urban warfare, would defend the city. “They need to turn that city, every street, every alley, every window, into a death trap.”

“I’d have a huge part of my population, or my forces, my soldiers, and anybody willing to help, barricading and turning that city into a porcupine, a fortress to where, when and if Russia does make it there, they will be stopped at the gates, and they will have to fight this very vicious house-to-house fight, where it’s called a meat grinder.”

“When you look at history, small amounts of enemy forces inside urban areas can delay an operation, delay losing, because, in this situation, as long as Kyiv doesn’t lose, Ukraine is winning,” Spencer said. “Because every moment, Putin loses political backing, he loses the logistical support.”

‘GET OFF THE STREETS’: “If I could talk to them, the number one thing they need to do is get off the streets,” Spencer said. “Russia — their doctrine is to hit the cities with as much firepower, with rockets, artillery, everything. If they can be seen from the sky, then they’re vulnerable. So, that’s my number one. You got to get off the streets.”

“In this situation, they’re fighting for their lives. I would start, I would have them just building barriers, parking buses in the street … Turn this place into a maze of hell.”

ISW-AEI SITREP UPDATE: “Russian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the capital likely aimed at encircling and ultimately capturing it. This effort will likely accelerate in the next 24-48 hours,” according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project.

“The Russian effort around Kyiv remains poorly organized, however, with elements of many different battalions combined into what seem to be ad hoc groupings rather than operating under standing regiment or brigade headquarters,” the analysis says.

Meanwhile, the update says that Russian troops are making progress along three lines of effort, one to seize Kharkiv in the north, a second to take Mariupol in the south, and a third to secure Kherson to the west of Mariupol.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden announces ban on Russian flights in US airspace in State of the Union

Washington Examiner: Early Russian struggles in Ukraine raise questions about Putin’s next steps

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian Christians fear Russia plans ‘aerial attack’ on St. Sophia Cathedral

Washington Examiner: From comedian to ‘Churchill’: Ukraine’s Zelensky ‘has risen to the moment’

Washington Examiner: Zelensky assassination plot averted, Ukraine says

Washington Examiner: US expelling 13th Russian ‘intelligence operative’ at United Nations

Washington Examiner: Russian troops ‘risk averse’ for themselves but not Ukrainian civilians

Washington Examiner: China’s delicate balancing act between Russia and the rest of the world

Washington Examiner: Appeals court sides with Navy SEALs suing over Pentagon’s vaccine mandate

Washington Examiner: YouTube blocks Russian news channels RT and Sputnik over invasion

Washington Examiner: US updates guidelines for nuclear explosion, includes social distancing

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Russia is highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons

AP: Russia ready for new talks, won’t say where

Reuters: What Happened to Russia’s Air Force? US Officials, Experts Stumped

Air Force Times: Ukraine’s Drone Strikes Reveal Russian Planning Failures, Expert Says

Defense News: Pentagon Revisiting Long-Term U.S. Troop Levels In Eastern Europe

Bloomberg: Russia’s Nuclear Exercise Last Month Was Timed to Send a Signal, U.S. Says

Defense One: Despite U.S.-Russia Tensions, the First All-Commercial Flight to ISS is Still On

Washington Post: In Putin, intelligence analysts see an isolated leader who underestimated the West but could lash out if cornered

AP: ‘Minister No’: Lavrov embodies Moscow’s steely posture

Washington Post: Ukrainians Deftly Wield New Weapon Of War: Social Media

Washington Post: Bolton, in rejecting Newsmax host’s assertion, says Trump ‘barely knew where Ukraine was’

Air Force Magazine: Pentagon Must Overhaul Global Posture After Russian Invasion of Ukraine, DOD and Think-Tankers Say

Air Force Magazine: VanHerck: China’s Efforts of Hypersonics ‘Tenfold’ What US Has Done

Inside Defense: DOD Assesses China Has Achieved ‘Strategic Breakout’ Requiring U.S. Policy, Capability Response

Breaking Defense: With ‘Delegation,’ US Warns Off China on Taiwan Amid Russia’s Ukraine Invasion

Washington Post: Iran nuclear talks down to the wire against backdrop of global tensions

Air Force Magazine: What’s Next for Space Force Uniforms: Tweaked Collars, Less Baggy Pants, Supply Chain Problems

19fortyfive.com: The Russian Army Has A Problem: Ukraine Keeps Killing Its Tanks

19fortyfive.com: When Will Russia Unleash Its Full Military Power Against Ukraine?

19fortyfive.com: Why Isn’t Russia’s Bomber Fleet Attacking Ukraine in Mass?

19fortyfive.com: No Way to Die: Is Russia Using Thermobaric Weapons In Ukraine?

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 2

8 a.m. 100 E Main Street, Norfolk, Virginia — Army Quartermaster General Brig. Gen. Michelle Donahue delivers remarks on “Tactical Vehicles and the Future for Army Sustainment” at the National Defense Industrial Association’s 2022 Tactical Wheeled Vehicles Conference.

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies online event: “Rights Revoked: The State of Human Rights in Afghanistan After Six Months of Taliban Rule,” with U.S. Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls, and Human Rights Rina Amiri; Heather Barr, associate director of the Women’s Rights Division at Human Rights Watch; and Anne Richard, fellow and Afghanistan coordination lead at Freedom House https://www.csis.org/events/rights-revoked-state-human-rights-afghanistan

10 a.m. — National Endowment for Democracy virtual discussion: “An Offshore Cold War: Forging a Democratic Alliance to Combat Transnational Kleptocracy,” with former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States; Oliver Bullough, author of “Moneyland: Why Thieves & Crooks Now Rule the World & How to Take it Back”; and Damon Wilson, NED president and CEO https://www.eventbrite.com/e/an-offshore-cold-war

12 p.m. — Harvard University’s Kennedy School virtual discussion: “Ukraine Update: Assessing the Military Situation and What’s Next?” with retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Serhii Plokhii, professor of Ukrainian history and director of the Ukrainian Research Institute; Michael Kofman, research program director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA and fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center’s Kennan Institute; and Paul Kolbe, director of the intelligence project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs https://www.belfercenter.org/event/ukraine-update

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Prevention Programs,” with testimony from Bonnie Carroll, president and founder, Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors; Dr. Craig Bryan, director, Suicide Prevention Program, hio State University Wexner Medical Center; Dr. Karen Orvis, director, Defense Suicide Prevention Office; Dr. Richard Mooney, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense, health services policy and oversight https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies press briefing to address the evolving situation in Ukraine, with Andrew Lohsen, fellow, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS; Caitlin Welsh, director, Global Food Security Program, CSIS; Erol Yayboke, director and senior fellow, Project on Fragility and Mobility, CSIS; ​Marti Flacks, director and senior fellow, Human Rights Initiative, CSIS; Seth Jones, senior vice president, director, International Security Program, CSIS; Eliot Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke chair in strategy, CSIS; and Ben Cahill, senior fellow, Energy Security and Climate Change Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/press-briefing-ukraine-update

6:30 p.m. 1957 E Street N.W. — George Washington UniversityElliott School of International Affairs and the U.S.-China Strategic Studies Organization Spring Conference on “Analyzing the Future of U.S.-China Relations,” with David Shambaugh, professor of Asian studies at GWU; and Robert Sutter, professor of practice of international affairs at GWU https://calendar.gwu.edu/uscsso-spring-conference

THURSDAY | MARCH 3

9 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute web event, “A conversation with House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, AEI, Kori Schake, director, foreign and defense policy Studies, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation

9 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion with House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith, D-Wash. https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation

10 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on how the United States and Congress should respond to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, with House Intelligence ranking member Mike Turner, R-Ohio https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

10 a.m. — United States Institute of Peace virtual discussion with Oleksandra Matviychuk, chair of the Center for Civil Liberties in Ukraine; and Asmik Arutyunyan, senior program specialist at the USIP Office of Russia and Europe https://www.usip.org/events/twitter-space-series

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittees on Seapower and Projection Forces and Readiness Joint hearing: “State of the Surface Navy,” with testimony from Adm. William Lescher, vice chief of naval operations; and Vice Adm. Roy Kitchener, commander, Naval Surface Force, U.S. Pacific Fleet https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Opportunities for Applying the AUKUS Model in South Korea, with Henry Sokolski, Executive Director, Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center; James Campbell, lead yard production manager, U.S. Naval Sea Systems Command; Park Young-June, professor, Korea National Defense University; Park Chang-Kwoun, professor, Hongik University, research fellow, Korean Institute for Defense Analysis; and Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-opportunities

1 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “The State of Decision Support Analysis in the DOD,” with former Deputy Defense Secretary David Norquist; former Acting Army Secretary John Whitley; and former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Policy Planning Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://www.heritage.org/defense/event

FRIDAY | MARCH 4

10 a.m. — U.S. States Institute of Peace virtual discussion on Afghanistan as part of the Twitter Space Series “Protecting Women’s Participation in Peacebuilding,” with Wazhma Frogh, co-founder and director of the Women and Peace Studies Organization; and Belquis Ahmadi, senior program officer for Afghanistan at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/twitter-space-series

11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion “World Stage: Ukraine,” with John Bolton, former U.S. national security adviser https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “The Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy,” with Edgard Kagan, senior director for East Asia and Oceania, National Security Council; Bonny Lin, director, China Power Project and senior fellow, Asian Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Lisa Curtis, director, Indo-Pacific Security Program and senior fellow, Center for a New American Security; and Patrick Cronin, senior fellow, and Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event

TUESDAY | MARCH 8

7 a.m. Fort Belvoir, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” in-person event with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville, followed by tour of the National Museum of the U.S. Army at Fort Belvoir.

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 9

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence virtual event with Audrey Schaffer, director for space policy, National Security Council; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chair, Mitchell Institute’s Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence. https://go.afa.org

THURSDAY | MARCH 10

10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum, with Barry Pavel, director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; Matthew Kroenig, deputy director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies https://go.afa.org