The political future of Nebraska Democratic senator Ben Nelson, who's up for reelection in 2012, looks like it's on the line. Here's Democratic polling firm PPP on what Nelson is facing in the 2012 election:
Every poll released so far on the 2012 Nebraska Senate race has shown Ben Nelson in deep trouble and our numbers are no exception. Nelson trails Attorney General Jon Bruning 50-39 in a hypothetical contest and Treasurer Don Stenberg by a 45-41 margin.
It's not hard to peg the reason for Nelson's precarious situation: you need to have a lot of appeal to Republicans if you're going to win as a Democrat in Nebraska, and while Nelson had that in the past he doesn't seem to anymore. The 2006 exit poll showed him winning a pretty remarkable 42% of the GOP vote. Now his approval rating with Republicans is down at 26%, and he gets just 17% of their votes against Bruning and 16% against Stenberg. Nelson actually has a 9 point advantage with independents over Bruning and a 17 point one over Stenberg but that's not enough given his lack of crossover support in the heavily GOP leaning state.
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