POLITICS: PennAve

Crisis dashboard: Stocks soar, Treasury yields collapse on deal news

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Treasury,Debt Ceiling,PennAve,Joseph Lawler,Economy,Budgets and Deficits,Minusextra,Government Shutdown,Financial Markets

The news of a congressional deal to raise the debt ceiling led to an immediate surge in stock and bond markets Wednesday morning as the threat of default was defused.

The S&P 500 had gained 23 points, or 1.4 percent, by close:



And short-term Treasury securities, which had sharply dropped in price entering Wednesday, quickly began recovering. Treasury yields (which fall as bond prices rise) began swiftly falling:



The perception that the risk of default was eliminated could be seen in the immediate drop in the price of insuring U.S. debt, as measured by credit default swap contracts:



The more lasting effect likely will be the damage done to consumer confidence, which cannot quickly be undone. The Gallup Economic Confidence Index has bottomed out and is likely to remained depressed for weeks:


A related measure, the Baker-Bloom-Davis Economic Uncertainty Index, has already done the damage it is likely to do:



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