Forgive us for being the skunk at the White House party, but nobody there said anything about the most important consequence of President Obama’s widely lauded decision to increase the national Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standard. Namely, that thousands more Americans will die or be grievously injured in auto accidents, thanks to the mandate that new vehicles average no less than 35.5 mpg by 2016. It’s a simple law of physics – weight is the enemy of fuel economy, so designing more fuel-efficient vehicles requires making them lighter. And people die or are injured more seriously when those lighter vehicles collide with the millions of heavier vehicles that will remain on the road for years to come.
Don’t simply take our word for it. Here are the facts, as reported by the Competitive Enterprise Institute in a study published in 2007: “A 2002 National Academy of Sciences study concluded that CAFE’s downsizing effect contributed to between 1,300 and 2,600 deaths in a single representative year, and to 10 times that many serious injuries. A 1989 Brookings-Harvard study estimated that CAFE caused a 14 to 27 percent increase in occupant fatalities, for an annual toll of 2,200 to 3,900 deaths. A 1999 USA Today analysis concluded that, over its lifetime, CAFE had resulted in 46,000 additional fatalities.” The grisly toll that will inevitably follow this latest CAFÉ increase will be a bloody testament to the maxim that government regulation always has unintended consequences.
Environmental extremists who have been pushing for higher CAFÉ standards for decades typically reject worries about increased deaths and injuries by claiming new technologies will make possible improved fuel efficiency without making vehicles less safe. Aside from the intrinsically speculative nature of that claim, however, no technology can repeal the laws of gravity, which dictate that smaller, lighter, less powerful vehicles always get better gas mileage. As long as government mandates higher fuel economy standards by a date certain, automakers will have to make smaller, lighter vehicles.
At least the president acknowledged one added cost of his decision, saying the price of a new vehicle will go up by an estimated $1,300. But he also claimed we will use $1.8 billion fewer barrels of oil, thanks to the higher standard. Those estimates ignore the reality that more lower and middle income families won’t be able to afford cars that meet the higher CAFÉ standard. So they will keep driving older, heavier, less fuel efficient and dirtier vehicles longer. Next: Subsidies for people who can’t afford cars designed by bureaucrats and environmentalists?
