The fundamentals -- greater Republican enthusiasm, independents going for Romney, the bad economy -- all point to a Romney win.
Twenty-three electoral votes slip from Romney's grasp because he ignored Wisconsin's GOP groundswell for too long and because George Allen drags on the ticket in Virginia.
Romney wins North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Indiana, four states Obama carried in 2008, but Obama will recapture the others he won four years ago. Obama's popular vote: 50.5 percent.
Either the state polls are right and Obama wins 303 to 235, or the national polls are right and Romney sweeps Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado.
Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and wins Ohio and Nevada. Romney, meanwhile, sweeps Virginia, Florida, Colorado and New Hampshire, but without Ohio still comes up short.
Romney wins Florida, Virginia, Colorado and surprises in Iowa (after a recount), but drops Ohio and falls short by a few thousand votes in Wisconsin.
Romney loses Ohio but has a major upset in Wisconsin, where recall and Paul Ryan have GOP pumped. He sweeps southern swing states Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, then adds Colorado and New Hampshire.
Romney scores upsets in Michigan and Pennsylvania, carries Florida and North Carolina and prevails even though Obama wins other swing states: Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado.
Auto bailout delivers Rust Belt to Obama, offsetting Romney pickups in Virginia, Florida, Colorado and New Hampshire. Ohio is again the GOP's undoing. Polarized electorate nearly gives Romney popular vote.
Romney loses must-win Ohio and all of the states he needed to make up for an Ohio loss, clearing the way for an Obama victory.
Romney picks up Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, but loses Colorado and New Hampshire. Republicans fall short in Michigan and Pennsylvania when suburbanites stick with the president. Democrats contest Ohio results.
Romney wins all the McCain states, plus Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana. He hits the magic number by winning 4 electoral votes in New Hampshire, the site of his first GOP primary victory.