Metro ridership, revenue falling below projections

Metro’s revenue and ridership — especially among bus passengers — are falling well below projections since the transit agency raised fares last summer. Metrobus has driven about 42 million passengers through the first four months of Metro’s fiscal year, more than 3 million fewer than a year ago, according to the agency’s October financial report.

Metro ridership so far this fiscal year is falling short of projections.

Budget buster
Oct. 2009 Oct. 2010 Oct. 2010
(in thousands) actual actual projected
Metrorail 75,258 75,437 75,746
Metrobus 45,299 42,133 45,387
MetroAccess 803 820 897
Source: Metro

Metro had projected that bus ridership would increase slightly this year.

Rail ridership also is off slightly. Weekday ridership in October averaged 745,000 people per day, about 3,000 fewer than October 2009.

However, thanks to record Saturday ridership during the Oct. 30 Comedy Central Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert rally, ridership for the month totaled nearly 19 million trips, a 2 percent increase over the budgeted amount.

From July through October, roughly 200,000 fewer people rode the rails in 2010 compared with the same period last year. The total ridership falls about 1 percent below Metro’s projections for the fiscal year beginning July 1.

In July and August the agency implemented several rounds of fare increases for bus and rail riders in an effort to fill a projected $189 million budget shortfall this year. The fare increases were expected to generate an extra $108 million for Metro, but through October, the agency is more than $11 million below its projected revenue.

Total revenue through the first four months of the fiscal year is nearly $274 million.

No officials were available to comment on the shortages.

Metro Chief Financial Officer Carol Kissal told The Washington Examiner in September that the lagging economy — not the fare increase — was to blame. But the October financial report, authored by Kissal, admits the fare increases are a factor in decreasing ridership.

Initial findings show that rail ridership has remained flat but revenue is down because riders are adjusting their schedules to avoid the “peak-of-the-peak” fares. Meanwhile, bus ridership has taken a 5 percent hit “due to the economic recession and the fare increase,” she said.

“While the economy has shown improvements for D.C. employees, the economic recession [disproportionately] affected bus passengers and will take a longer time to see positive gains in service industry jobs,” Kissal wrote.

The report also notes the revenue shortfall in October is narrower than in previous months and suggests the agency is closing the gap between its actual and projected income.

In other cities, transit agency fare increases haven’t always resulted in dropping ridership. But fare increases in a struggling economy almost always spell fewer riders.

New York’s subway ridership rose every year between the economic growth years of 2004 and 2008, despite two fare increases. However, the agency expects a drop in passengers for 2011 after it recently approved another fare increase.

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