The Washington metropolitan area could have nearly three times the number of commuters on the road by 2030 if it doesn't figure out a way to house 1 million or more new workers close to their jobs, according to a study released Thursday by George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis.
The housing report looked at predicted job growth for the region -- 1 million new jobs between 2010 and 2030 and an additional 1.8 million workers to replace retirees -- and showed that local governments will need to change the ways they now deal with housing.
"We need to think about housing as part of a larger economic development strategy," said Lisa Sturtevant, a co-author of the report. "Many localities are proactive in seeking big companies to come to their county, such as SAIC, Hilton, etc. But part of their strategy needs to be that the workers who take those jobs need somewhere to live."
| Net new jobs 2010-2030; percent change |
| Washington Metro Area 1,053,855 38.2% |
| District of Columbia 152,130 20.8% |
| Montgomery County 163,008 34.5% |
| Prince George's 76,578 23.7% |
| Alexandria 41,340 39% |
| Arlington 46,640 26.1% |
| Fairfax 168,833 26.7% |
| Loudoun 146,909 104.7% |
| Prince William 81,241 58.2% |
The forecast could change depending on how many jobs Congress cuts from the federal work force, but the region will get 1 million new jobs even if federal spending doesn't increase over the next 20 years, said center Director Stephen Fuller.
To house new workers, suburban Maryland will need as many as 211,000 new housing units by 2030, the report says. Northern Virginia will need as many as 392,000 units. The region as a whole will need as many as 731,000 units.
To meet those needs, local governments can encourage development through zoning and land-use rules, but ultimately the private sector will have to kick into gear.
"Right now builders aren't building, even if they were handing out permits left and right," Sturtevant said.
Loudoun County is projected to have the greatest job growth, with 150,000 new workers expected by 2030. That would mean Loudoun would need to build about 5,000 new housing units every year, GMU's study said. The county issued more than 6,000 residential building permits every year from 2002 to 2006.
If communities don't end up supplying housing where people work, the result could be catastrophic for the region, with $68 billion lost to the region's economy and 700,000 commuters on the road every day, up from the current 230,000.
"You can't imagine what that does for productivity and quality of life," Sturtevant said. "It would really hit home to businesses. They would say, 'We need to do something to get our workers closer, or we need to move.'"
