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Morning Examiner: As Virginia goes…

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Politics,Beltway Confidential,Conn Carroll

The first votes are in and so far the 2012 election is a tie. As they do every four years, the voters of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire voted at midnight last night and the results point to a close race: President Obama got five votes, and so did Mitt Romney.

But while the final result may not tell us anything, the number of people who turned out to vote might. In 2008, Obama beat John McCain 15 to 6 in the same midnight vote. In other words Republican turnout has held steady while Democrat turnout has fallen off a cliff. And that is not a good sign for Obama, who needs Democrats to beat their 2008 turnout numbers if he is to prevail over Romney today.

While Obama is still winning in many state poll averages, his margins all depend on the pollsters turnout models that contribute to them being right. And we should know who is right, the heavy-Dem turnout model or the heavy-Republican turnout model, fairly early in the evening.

PPP, for example, has Obama up 1 in Florida, 4 in Virginia, 5 in Ohio, 3 in Wisconsin, and 6 in Iowa. Rasmussen, on the other hand has Romney up, 2 in Florida, 2 in Virginia, tied in Ohio, tied in Wisconsin, and up 3 in Iowa. Someone is right about all these states and someone is wrong.

Thanks to the Florida panhandle, Virginia will be the first of these states to close their polls (at 7 PM EST). If Virginia is called for Obama, look for him to cruise to reelection with about 303 electoral college votes. But if Romney wins Virginia, then the  PPP turnout model will be wrong in other states too. In that case Romney should prevail with a much narrower 290 electoral college vote total.

From The Washington Examiner
Examiner Editorial: Under Obamacare full-time jobs become part-time
Joel Gehrke: Nate Silver gave Sharron Angle a 75 percent chance of winning
Mark Tapscott: Romney will win because it’s 1984 all over again
Sean Higgins: 1 in 6 retired lawmakers have $100,000+ pensions

Campaign 2012
Senate: In the 11 closest Senate races, Democrat candidates out-raised Republican candidates by $45 million.
Ohio: If the margin is close, early voting laws could stretch out the campaign into December in Ohio.

In Other News
The Washington Post, Young workers’ retirement hopes grow bleaker amid economic downturn: The economic downturn is pressing more employers to reduce pension benefits and significantly delaying when people launch their careers, darkening the already bleak picture that young workers face in saving for retirement.
Fox News, Superstorm Sandy brings out price gouging, looting and rage: Looting, price gouging and misguided rage all compounded the damage from Superstorm Sandy.
NBC News, Fort Hood shooting victims sue government: On the third anniversary of the Fort Hood rampage, 148 victims and family members sued the government Monday for compensation for the attack that authorities say was carried out by an Army psychiatrist.

Righty Playbook
Robert Costa on how the Romney campaign thinks they will get to 270.
Josh Jordan predicts independents will give Romney a win.
The Heritage Foundation‘s Helle Dale on CBS’ decision to withhold Obama’s failure to call Benghazi terrorism.

Lefty Playbook
Salon‘s Steve Kornacki predicts an Obama landslide.
The Washington Post‘s Ezra Klein predicts Obama wins with 290 electoral votes.
Think Progress looks at five state ballot measures important for progressives.

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