In 2008, President Obama won the electoral college 365 votes to 173 while winning the popular vote 53 percent to 46 percent. Not even The New York Times Nate Silver has Obama even approaching those totals in 2012.
So the question isn’t whether Obama will do worse than he did in 2008, the question is how much worse he will do. And the early indications, both in the states and nationally, are not encouraging.
In Virginia, early voting turnout is down nearly 14 percent in counties that went for Obama and down almost 18 percent in the most heavily Democratic counties.
In Ohio‘s most Democratic county, Cuyahoga, early voting is down 10 percent.
In Illinois, where Obama won by 25 points in 2008, polls show him up just 16 points today.
And nationally, Pew reportsthat Mitt Romney is beating Obama among all early voters 50 percent to 43 percent. At this same time in 2008 Obama was crushing McCain 53 percent to 43 percent among early voters
Because Obama is losing among independents by double-digits, all of the state polls showing Obama ahead in swing states like Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, are predicated on voter turnout models that don’t just match Democratic turnout in 2008, but ambitiously exceed it. The early real data we are seeing from all over the country is showing the opposite: so far, turnout not only isn’t exceeding 2008, it is failing to match it at all.
This spells huge trouble for an incumbent president who can’t get to 50 percent in national polling.
From The Washington Examiner
Examiner Editorial: Obama’s ‘Secretary of Business’
Phil Klein: Bright spot for Romney in Virgina absentee voting
Joel Gehrke: Obama’s support down from 2008 in Illinois
Brian Hughes: Crucial early votes for Obama lagging in Ohio stronghold
Obama: Billionaire New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who banned all drinks larger than 16 oz. earlier this year, endorsed Obama yesterday.
In Other News
The Wall Street Journal, Millions Stuck in Dark, Cold: As overnight temperatures fell to the 40s, power crews in more than a dozen states navigated a tangle of fallen trees, downed power lines and dangerous floodwaters in the painstaking, house-by-house work of reconnecting millions of customers left in the dark by Sandy.
The New York Times, Gasoline Runs Short, Adding Woes to Storm Recovery: Widespread gas shortages stirred fears among residents and disrupted some rescue and emergency services on Thursday as the New York region struggled to return to a semblance of normalcy after being ravaged by Hurricane Sandy.
The Wall Street Journal, Looming Tax Hike Motivates Owners to Sell: Many business owners—mostly founders who could gain a lot from a sale—are looking to close deals before next year, when the maximum tax on investment income is scheduled to rise from 15% currently to at least 23.8% on most capital gains, at least for higher-income households.
CBS News, Key task force not convened during Benghazi consulate attack: During the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. Mission in Benghazi, the Obama Administration did not convene its top interagency counterterrorism resource: the Counterterrorism Security Group.
The Washington Post, CIA rushed to save diplomats as Libya attack was underway: The CIA rushed security operatives to an American diplomatic compound in Libya within 25 minutes of its coming under attack and played a more central role in the effort to fend off a night-long siege than has been acknowledged publicly, U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.
Reuters, Judge backs Catholic firm over contraception mandate: A Catholic-owned family business in Michigan does not have to comply with the provision of the new U.S. healthcare law that requires private employers to provide employees with health insurance that covers birth control, a federal judge in Detroit has ruled.
Sean Davis explains why Nate Silver’s model is no better than a simple spreadsheet.
AEI‘s Henry Olsen says early voting numbers look good for Romney in Ohio.
RedState‘s Jason Hart documents how EPA regulations are already hurting Ohio’s economy.
Roger Pielke explains why climate change is not to blame for Hurricane Sandy.
The New York Times public editor admonished Nate Silver for challenging MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough to a bet over the election.
Andrew Sullivan attacks Republicans for rejecting reality because they rejected a Congressional Research study on taxes and economic growth.
Talking Points Memo reports that, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, liberal groups are finally running ads about climate change.