Considering how effectively Democrats gamed the Congressional Budget Office’s scoring system during the Obamacare debate, conservatives have every reason to be skeptical of anything the CBO publishes. And while pro-amnesty Republicans may be touting the $197 billion cut that the CBO projects the Schumer-Rubio immigration bill will make to the deficit, conservatives should read the entire CBO report, and the accompanying Economic Impact study, closely. They will discover that the CBO has unquestionably validated every conservative objection to the bill.
No end to illegal immigration
Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., may be making bold pronouncements from the Senate floor about how “illegal immigration will be a thing of the past” if his bill becomes law, but the CBO disagrees. They write: “Unauthorized residents would find it harder both to enter the country and to find employment while unauthorized. However, other aspects of the bill would probably increase the number of unauthorized residents—in particular, people overstaying their visas issued under the new programs for temporary workers.”
Overall, CBO estimates that Schumer-Rubio would only decrease illegal immigration by just 25 percent. Combine that future flow of illegal immigrants with the 3 million illegal immigrants who CBO estimates will not qualify for legalization this time around, and you have a growing cohort of future illegal immigrants who are guaranteed to demand another amnesty years from now.
In addition to not ending illegal immigration, CBO estimates that Schumer-Rubio will also make unemployment worse too. “Employment would increase as the labor force expanded, because the additional population would add to demand for goods and services and, in turn, to the demand for labor,” the report reads. “However, temporary imbalances in the skills and occupations demanded and supplied in the labor market, as well as other factors, would cause the unemployment rate to be slightly higher for several years than projected under current law.”
Not only will more Americans be unemployed if amnesty passes, but those with jobs will also suffer lower wages as well. “The legislation would particularly increase the number of workers with lower or higher skills but would have less effect on the number of workers with average skills,” the report says. “As a result, the wages of lower- and higher-skilled workers would tend to be pushed downward slightly (by less than ½ percent) relative to the wages of workers with average skills.”
Ponzi scheme deficit reduction
Even the CBO’s top line $197 billion deficit reduction number does not stand up to scrutiny. That number is only valid if you believe the Social Security and Medicare trust funds don’t exist. It includes all payroll taxes paid to those programs that are supposed to be saved to pay for them decades from now. If we maintain the fictions of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, then S. 744 actually adds $14.2 billion to the deficit over ten years. But like any Ponzi scheme, those paying into the system now will eventually want to get paid what they were promised years from now. When today’s cohort of amnestied illegal immigrants begins to retire, Social Security and Medicare will begin to collapse. S. 744 may shore up the two entitlement programs in the short-term, but it makes them more fragile long-term.
Conservatives should all take a good long read of both the CBO’s Cost Estimate and Economic Impact estimates of S. 744. They will discover that Schumer-Rubio: 1) doesn’t end illegal immigration; 2) raises unemployment; 3) lowers American wages, and 4) raids Social Security. Other than that it is great legislation.
From the Washington Examiner
Phil Klein: Senate immigration bill would expand Obamacare
Byron York: Support falling in polls, Harry Reid announces rush to pass immigration bill
David Drucker: New border security plan could unite Dems, GOP
Sean Higgins: Telecom union admits immigration bill is bad for workers, but supports it anyway
Susan Ferrechio: House passes ban on abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy
Ashe Schow: Deputy AG admits spy program mistakenly targets innocent people
Michael Barone: A libertarian turn on social issues
In Other News
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The Washington Post, U.S. to launch formal peace talks with Taliban: The Obama administration will start formal peace talks with the Taliban on Thursday in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar, the first direct political contact between them since early last year and the initial step in what the administration hopes will lead to a negotiated end to the protracted war in Afghanistan.
McClatchy Newspapers: IRS cases were referred to ‘Group 7822’: The Internal Revenue Service diverted applications for tax-exempt status from tea party and like-minded organizations to a special track known as Group 7822 for special scrutiny, according to transcripts of an interview by congressional interrogators with a key IRS official.
ABC News, How the Fed Will Wean America From Cheap Money: One of the main reasons for the soaring stock market is the current low cost of capital for public companies. This cost is far lower than it otherwise would be because of a program undertaken by the Federal Reserve Board (the Fed) that goes by the nerdy name, quantitative easing, or, for short, QE.
Greg Sargent notes that John Boehner left the door open for a House vote on amnesty after a conference committee with the Senate.
Think Progress defends inflicting pain on fetuses.
David Dayen reports that Bank of American employees were told to lie borrowers to push them into foreclosure.
BuzzFeed on White House plans to sell Obamacare through social media.
The Blaze on Mike Lee’s theory that Chief Justice Roberts was intimidated into voting for Obamacare.
Kelsey Harris on A Farmer’s Case Against the Farm Bill
MIchael Rubin says America lost Afghanistan.