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POLITICS: PennAve

Nate Silver: Republicans have a 60 percent chance of retaking the Senate

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Democrats' favorite statistician from 2012 may not be their favorite this fall.

Nate Silver's latest election forecast says Republicans are "slightly more likely than not" to regain control of the Senate in November.

The editor of the FiveThirtyEight website notes that Democrats were swept into office in a wave election in 2008, winning the popular vote margin for House seats by nearly 11 percentage points. By comparison, Democrats won the popular vote margin for House seats by three-tenths of a percentage point in 2012.

This year's batch of Senate elections "come from states that gave Obama an average of just 46 percent of the vote in 2012."

Silver describes 2014 as a potential "reversion to the mean," and says a "wave" election is unnecessary for Republicans to retake control.

A former baseball analyst, Silver correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election in all 50 states in 2012.

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