Though I’ve written about the signs that congressional Democrats and President Trump have both reached the conclusion that any impeachment effort would backfire and actually boost Trump’s reelection chances, there are also ways that it could work out in the opposite direction.
To be sure, polls have consistently shown that more Americans oppose impeachment than support it. And taking the action would likely distract House Democrats from being able to do anything else they’d want to do to improve their 2020 prospects.
Yet, much of the conventional wisdom on impeachment is rooted not only in the public polling, but in the experience of former President Bill Clinton’s impeachment, which is widely viewed as a major miscalculation by congressional Republicans. Clinton remained popular after his impeachment, and even used it to his advantage.
At the same time, however, it’s worth remembering that Democrats lost the 2000 presidential election. And all of the investigations and scandals contributed to what was known as “Clinton fatigue” which polling showed dragged down Al Gore and spurred George W. Bush’s pledge to restore “honor and dignity” to the White House.
So, while impeachment in and of itself may be unpopular, creating the constant cloud around Trump, and reinforcing the sense that he’s a polarizing figure that will always bring drama to Washington, could increase public weariness over the Trump presidency. This would certainly complement Joe Biden’s current case, however delusional, that once Trump is out of the picture things could go back to normal and Republicans and Democrats will be able to work together.
This scenario even assumes that Democrats don’t find anything damaging on Trump over the course of the impeachment process, which of course is always a possibility.
