THE LONG WEEKEND: At a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing yesterday, acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford laid out the timeline of events as the United States became concerned that Iran was considering attacks against U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf region and urgent meetings were convened at the Pentagon over the weekend.

“We received indications and this very, very credible intelligence on Friday afternoon. We went to work understanding the sources and to get the teams turning on what does it mean and how might we respond,” Shanahan told the committee. “And I went for a run, then Chairman Dunford called me up and said North Korea was now shooting rockets and missiles. Saturday, the chairman and I went through the intelligence with Gen. McKenzie from CENTCOM, and it was really Sunday afternoon that you came back and said, ‘Here’s what we’re recommending, I need authority to proceed.’”

“Our focus over the weekend was to deter. We saw the intelligence and so we sent some messages on Friday to make sure that it was clear to Iran that we recognize the threat and we were postured to respond to the threat,” added Dunford. “What I asked really was to accelerate the movement of the Lincoln and the bomber task force so that there would be no ambiguity about our preparedness to respond to any threat against our people or our partners in the region.”

MORE ON THE INTEL: NBC News reports that it wasn’t just missiles spotted on Iranian vessels but also intercepted communication intelligence that sparked immediate concern.

“The U.S. decision to surge additional military forces into the Middle East was based in part on intelligence that the Iranian regime has told some of its proxy forces and surrogates that they can now go after American military personnel and assets in the region, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence,” reports NBC’s Courtney Kube. “The intelligence shows that an Iranian official discussed activating Iranian-backed groups to target Americans, but did not mention targeting the militaries of other nations, the officials said.”

Breaking Defense reports the intelligence was passed to the United States by Israel, which is also on high alert for possible attacks.

PILING ON: With Iran’s crippled economy already reeling, President Trump issued an executive order imposing sanctions on Iran’s iron, steel, aluminum, and copper sectors, further ratcheting up his “maximum pressure” campaign on the one-year anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.

In a written statement, Trump said that the sanctions would have a big impact on Iran’s economy. The administration has already targeted oil — Iran’s biggest export — in recent months.

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POMPEO CUTS TRIP SHORT: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo skipped the last stop on his overseas itinerary to return to Washington. Pompeo had been scheduled to visit Nuuk, Greenland, but flew home after meetings in London because of the need to focus on Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea.

In reaction to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s announcement the regime will begin stockpiling low-enriched uranium and heavy water in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal, Pompeo issued a statement calling the move “a blatant attempt to hold the world hostage.”

“Its threat to renew nuclear work that could shorten the time to develop a nuclear weapon underscores the continuing challenge the Iranian regime poses to peace and security worldwide,” Pompeo said. “The United States is committed to denying the Iranian regime all paths to a nuclear weapon. We will continue to impose maximum pressure on the regime until it abandons its destabilizing ambitions.”

BREAKING — N. KOREA FIRES ‘UNIDENTIFIED PROJECTILES’: South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports North Korea fired “unidentified projectiles” just five days after launching a similar barrage of projectiles into the East Sea.

South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff said the projectiles were fired from the Sino-ri area located roughly 50 miles northwest of Pyongyang, where North Korea has a base of medium-range Nodong missiles.

Yonhap notes the firing comes as officials from the United States and Japan, including U.S. special representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun, are in South Korea to explore ways to resume stalled nuclear talks.

WHAT’S GOES UP?: The North Korea monitoring group 38 North says that photographs released by North Korea after the first launch indicate that two different types of large-caliber projectiles are involved — multiple launch rocket systems and a new short-range ballistic missile.

“The 240 mm and 300 mm diameter MLRS systems are not new to North Korea, nor do they alter the country’s battlefield capabilities,” analyst Michael Elleman writes. But he warns the short-range ballistic missile, depending on its origins, “may significantly enhance Pyongyang’s capacity to conduct strategic strikes against targets in South Korea.”

US FIRES IDENTIFIED PROJECTILE: And for the second time in just over a week, the U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command early this morning launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile as part of a routine test of the land-based leg of America’s nuclear triad.

“The test demonstrates the United States’ nuclear deterrent is modern, robust, flexible, ready and appropriately tailored to deter twenty-first century threats and reassure our allies,” said a statement from the Air Force. “Test launches are not a response or reaction to world events or regional tensions.”

Missileers at the 90th Missile Wing at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming, launched the Minuteman III ICBM, which was equipped with a test reentry vehicle, at 12:40 a.m. Pacific time from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif.

DUNFORD: US TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN ARE ‘TERM INSURANCE’: In his Senate testimony yesterday, Gen. Dunford — who has only four months left in his term — issued a parting warning against pulling U.S. troops out of Afghanistan any time soon.

“I don’t think anybody would want to withdraw our forces from Afghanistan or the broader Middle East more than me,” Dunford said before sharing the advice he gave two presidents. “I know it’s frustrating to you and the American people for us to be there for such a long period of time, it’s just my judgment right now that the conditions for a complete withdrawal aren’t there.”

Dunford said there are at least 20 violent extremist groups in the region, including some that have clearly demonstrated the intent to attack the United States and Americans abroad.

“I firmly believe that the pressure that our counterterrorism efforts have put on those groups over the last years have prevented another 9/11,” he testified. “If you want to think about this in terms of term insurance, once you stop paying the premium, you no longer have insurance. And what we’re doing in Afghanistan today, in my judgment, is a commensurate level of effort to the threat.”

IT’S CHINA’S FAULT: China bears significant blame for Iran’s success in developing a dangerous new array of ballistic missiles, a top White House adviser said while asking allies to rebuke the Communist power.

“We call on all governments that maintain ties with Beijing to make this a priority,” Tim Morrison, the White House National Security Council’s senior director for weapons of mass destruction, said Wednesday. “For U.S. allies, especially those in the Gulf that face the threat of Iranian missiles every day, this should be a priority in the relations with China.”

Morrison’s complaint centered on Chinese officials allowing “a key broker for Iran’s ballistic missile program” to operate with impunity for more than a decade. Businessman Li Fangwei, also known as Karl Lee, has helped the regime modernize an arsenal of ballistic missiles that play a central role in its military plans. The FBI offers a $5 million reward for information leading to Li’s arrest.

SPACE FORCE PRICE TAG: A new report from the Congressional Budget Office calculates the costs of five different variations of the Space Force. Under the current proposal, the Pentagon wants to create three structures, which could increase annual costs by $1 billion to $2 billion and require onetime startup costs of $2 billion to $5 billion. The CBO estimates:

• A new military department would require 5,400 to 7,800 new personnel for overhead and management and increase DoD’s annual costs by $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion.
• A new service within the Department of the Air Force would be slightly smaller, requiring 4,100 to 6,800 such personnel and increasing annual costs by $820 million to $1.3 billion.
• A new policy directorate, by contrast, would require just 40 to 300 new personnel and increase DoD’s annual costs by $10 million to $60 million.

The options would also incur onetime startup and transition costs, mostly for building new facilities to house the new organizations. CBO estimates that those costs would amount to between $1 billion and $3 billion for a new department or service.

SLEEPWALKING TO SEQUESTER: There is a train wreck coming, and no one in Congress seems to be able to figure out how to stop it, warns Rick Berger, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “We’re sleepwalking into a worse sequester than the one that hit the military in 2013, yet we’ve made no progress on a spending deal,” says Berger, who has an opinion piece out this morning.

“Neither Republicans nor Democrats possess a coherent strategy for negotiating a spending deal or raising the debt ceiling. Both sides have relied on a take-no-prisoners approach during negotiations. And an array of contentious secondary issues has complicated the legislative process,” he writes. “In short, every passing day in which momentum is not created toward a deal instead adds to the attractiveness of blaming the other party for failing to achieve one.”

BRAZIL TRUMP’S NEW BFF: You may recall when President Trump met with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in March, the two hit it off so well that Trump said he might nominate Brazil for NATO membership. Bolsonaro has been dubbed by some the “Brazilian Donald Trump.”

“As I told President Bolsonaro, I also intend to designate Brazil as a major non-NATO ally, or even possibly, if you start thinking about it, maybe a NATO ally,” Trump said in a White House news conference March 19. “I have to talk to a lot of people, but maybe a NATO ally, which will greatly advance security and cooperation between our countries.”

Yesterday, Trump made good on the first part of his pledge. “In accordance with section 517 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended (22 U.S.C. 2321k), I am providing notice of my intent to designate Brazil as a Major Non-NATO Ally,” Trump said in a message to Congress.

“I am making this designation in recognition of the Government of Brazil’s recent commitments to increase defense cooperation with the United States, and in recognition of our own national interest in deepening our defense coordination with Brazil.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Border crisis worsens: 100,000 border crossers arrested in April, highest since 2007

Washington Examiner: First naval officer to be UK defense secretary promises to hang Horatio Nelson portrait in her office

Washington Post: A frustrated Trump questions his administration’s Venezuela strategy

Air Force Magazine: B-52s Land in Middle East as CENTCOM Boss Warns Iran

The Diplomat: Russia’s Sole Aircraft Carrier to Remain Docked in 2020

Washington Examiner: Trump voter base would recoil at attack on Venezuela or Iran, backers warn

Seapower Magazine: Spencer: Navy’s Readiness Relies On Industrial Base, New Approach To Risk

New York Times: Is a Child of ISIS Just a Child? Or a Time Bomb?

Washington Examiner: He ‘checks all the blocks’: Pompeo shares a bond with Trump few can claim

Air Force Magazine: Space Force Work Plan Heading to Capitol Hill

Military Times: The U.S. Military’s Logistical Train Is Slowly Snaking Toward China

Calendar

THURSDAY | MAY 9

8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. National Defense Industrial Association, the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, the Air Force Association and the Reserve Officers Association forum on “China’s Peer Challenges: Nuclear and Space Modernization, Power Projection, and Political Strategy.” Speakers: Gordon Chang, contributor to the Daily Beast, and Rick Fisher, senior fellow on Asian military affairs at the International Assessment Strategy Center. www.afa.org/hbs

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a discussion on the consequences of cutting U.S. aid to the Northern Triangle countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Speakers: Leah Campos, former senior staff for the House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman; Dan Fisk, COO of the International Republican Institute and former senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council; former U.S. ambassador to Guatemala Stephen McFarland; Katie Taylor, executive director of the Pan American Development Foundation; Rebecca Chavez, nonresident senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue and former deputy assistant defense secretary for the Western Hemisphere; Mark Schneider, nonresident senior adviser at the CSIS Americas Program and Human Rights Initiative; Michael Matera, director and senior fellow at the CSIS Americas Program; Daniel Runde, senior vice president and global analysis chair at CSIS and director of the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development; and Erol Yayboke, deputy director and senior fellow at the CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development and the Project on U.S. Leadership in Development. www.csis.org

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. Vice Chief of Staff of the Army Gen. James McConville, Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Bill Moran, Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force Gen. Stephen Wilson, and Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. Gary Thomas testify before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness.

4:15 p.m. River Entrance. Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan welcomes Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan Yoshihide Suga to the Pentagon.

FRIDAY | MAY 10

10:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Rules in War – A Thing of the Past?” Speakers: Peter Maurer, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker; Charles Stimson, manager of the Heritage Foundation’s National Security Law Program; J. Stephen Morrison, director of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center; and Kimberly Flowers, director of the CSIS Global Food Security Project. www.csis.org

12 p.m. 1800 M Street N.W. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Brookings Institution sponsor an invitation-only discussion on Operation Tidal Wave II and its role in the destruction of the Islamic State’s finances. Speakers: Retired Gen. John Allen, president of the Brookings Institution; David Asher, former State Department official and FDD senior fellow; and retired Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, former commander of the coalition against ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Moderated by Nancy Youssef, national security correspondent at the Wall Street Journal. [Note: This event was incorrectly listed as Wednesday in yesterday’s calendar.]