BY THE NUMBERS: Here’s a breakdown of Esper’s Navy, to be built over the next 25 years, along with his comments from yesterday’s event:

• 70 – 80 Attack Submarines. “If we do nothing else, the Navy must begin building three Virginia-class submarines a year as soon as possible. Additionally, we intend to refuel the seventh Los Angeles-class submarine and continue investing in the future attack submarine.”
• 8 – 11 Nuclear-powered Carriers. “Our most visible deterrent, with the ability to project power … to continue enhancing their survivability and lethality, we are developing the air wing of the future, capable of engaging at extended ranges.”
• 6 Light Carriers. “Light carriers provide additional presence and capacity to carry out day-to-day missions and free up supercarriers for more critical high-end fights … One model we are considering is the USS America that is equipped with more than a dozen F-35Bs.”
• 140 – 240 Robot Ships. “Unmanned and optionally manned surface and sub-surface vessels of all types [will have] the potential to perform a wide range of missions from resupply and surveillance to mine laying and missile strikes.”
• 60 – 70 Smaller Surface Combatants. “Study results indicate the introduction of 60 to 70 smaller combatants into the fleet will not only increase capacity to conduct distributed maritime operations, but it will also free other critical assets for more efficient mission distribution.”
• 50 – 60 Amphibious Warfare Ships. “The Marine Corps is currently in the process of implementing its force structure plan, and I support the commandant’s visions to recalibrate the great power competition. As such, we see a need for more amphibious warfare ships then previously planned.”
• More unmanned ship-based aircraft. “The Navy must develop and deploy carrier-based unmanned aircraft of all types. This includes fighters, refuelers, early warning, and electronic attack aircraft.”

IT’S ALL ABOUT CHINA — AND RUSSIA: “The challenge before us today is clear. Near-peer rivals — namely China and Russia — are rapidly modernizing their militaries in an effort to erode our long-standing advantages and shift the balance of power in their favor,” Esper said.

“Beijing wants to achieve parity with the United States Navy, if not exceed our capabilities in certain areas, and to offset our overmatch in several others,” he said. “For instance, [China] is investing in long-range missiles and autonomous unmanned submarines it believes can be cost-effective counters to conventional American naval power.”

HARD CHOICES AHEAD: Esper did not attach a price tag to the mammoth effort, which will have to be carried out by future administration and will face considerable budget headwinds, even in the short term.

“Achieving Battle Force 2045 over the long run will not be easy. Parochial interests, budget uncertainties, industrial capacity, and other competing factors will contest our ambitions,” said Esper, who added that both Congress and the Pentagon need to step up.

“To deliver this future fleet, we first need congressional support for sustained, predictable, adequate, and timely budgets, which means no more continuing resolutions,” Esper said. “Second, the department must be able to divest from legacy systems and lower-priority activities and then redirect those savings to our highest priorities.”

“If we can assemble the collective will and determination to see it through, I am confident that Battle Force 2045 will maintain our maritime superiority far into the future and ensure the United States Navy remains the greatest in the world for generations to come.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Vice President Mike Pence and his Democratic challenger, California Sen. Kamala Harris, face off tonight in Salt Lake City, Utah, in the first and only vice presidential candidates debate.

The two candidates will be seated on stage 12 feet apart and separated by plexiglass barriers to protect against COVID-19. Audience members will be required to wear face coverings at all times.

JOINT CHIEFS TELEWORKING: All but one member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff are working from home as a precaution after possible exposure to the novel coronavirus, the Pentagon revealed yesterday.

Adm. Charles Ray, vice commandant of the Coast Guard, has tested positive for COVID-19, and among the people he has come in contact with within the last week are most of the top military leaders.

“He was at the Pentagon last week for meetings,” said Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman. “Some meeting attendees included other service chiefs. We are conducting additional contact tracing and taking appropriate precautions to protect the force and the mission.”

So far, no one else has tested positive or exhibited symptoms. Ray was also at an event for Gold Star families at the White House Sept. 27 attended by Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley. Esper then left on an overseas trip and has tested negative several times since.

The four-stars who are self-quarantining include Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. John Hyten, Army Chief Gen. James McConville, Air Force Chief Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday, Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond, National Guard Bureau chief Army Gen. Daniel Hokanson, and Cyber Command head Army Gen. Paul Nakasone.

“All have been tested with no positive results to report, and none are exhibiting any symptoms,” a Pentagon official said.

SMITH: TRUMP’S ‘ANTICS, RECKLESS AND HARMFUL’: Washington state Democrat Adam Smith, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, used the news of the precautionary self-isolating to launch an attack against President Trump.

“Since announcing that he tested positive for the virus, the President’s antics have been downright reckless and harmful. Thanks to diligent reporting, we know that many of the President’s senior staff have also tested positive, and as of today most of our senior military leaders are under quarantine,” Smith said in a statement.

“While our military can still operate while leadership is quarantined, the national security implications of the President’s recklessness cannot be overstated. Our adversaries are always looking for any weakness to exploit.”

US, BULGARIA SIGN DEFENSE AGREEMENT: Esper met with Bulgarian Minister of Defense Krasimir Karakachanov at the Pentagon yesterday and signed a 10-year defense cooperation agreement with the front-line NATO nation.

Esper said Bulgaria plays a critical role in protecting NATO’s eastern flank, and he praised the ally for exceeding NATO goals by spending 3% of its gross domestic product toward defense in fiscal 2019.

“I encourage you and our other alliance members to pay to push for 2% of the GDP spending target and to make the needed investments to enhance your capabilities and capacity,” Esper said. “Because you know, I believe that 2% should be a floor, not a ceiling.”

ACLU WINS ROUND IN DRONE LEGAL BATTLE: A federal court ruled in favor of the American Civil Liberties Union in a lawsuit seeking to force the government to release its rules of engagement for drone strikes and other killings overseas.

The ruling comes in a case resulting from a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit filed by the American Civil Liberties Union and the New York Times in December 2017. The Trump administration’s rules, known as the “Principles, Standards, and Procedures,” are believed to loosen Obama-era policy restrictions aimed at limiting civilian casualties in areas “outside of active hostilities,” the ACLU said. “The district court rejected the administration’s claim that it could not even confirm or deny whether the new rules exist.”

“Just like during the last administration, a court has decided that President Trump has stretched implausible claims of secrecy over the government’s killing rules too far,” said Brett Max Kaufman, senior staff attorney with the ACLU. “The government should not only acknowledge these new rules exist, but make them public.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Esper cites China as motivation to boost funding to Navy

Washington Examiner: Joint Chiefs of Staff in quarantine after vice commandant of Coast Guard contracts the coronavirus

Washington Examiner: Pompeo moves to fortify Indo-Pacific ‘Quad’ coalition that China fears as ‘mini-NATO’

Washington Examiner: Trump says he authorized total declassification of documents related to Russia investigation and Hillary Clinton emails

Washington Examiner: Biden says presidential debate shouldn’t be held if Trump still has COVID-19

Washington Examiner: Pence staffer says vice president doesn’t need plexiglass barrier at debate with Harris

Washington Examiner: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley apologizes to Adam Schiff for ‘indictment’ joke

Stars and Stripes: Navy Says Basic Measures Prove Effective For Stemming The Coronavirus Aboard Warships

USNI News: Former U.S. Forces Korea CO: Pausing Exercises ‘No Longer Relevant’ to North Korea Nuclear Negotiations

Yonhap: N. Korea’s SLBM To Complicate Denuclearization Efforts: Ex-Defense Official

New York Times: North Korean Diplomat, Missing Since 2018, Is in Seoul, Lawmaker Says

Washington Post: ISIS militants linked to killings of Western hostages in Syria expected to be flown Wednesday from Iraq to the U.S. to face prosecution

Talk Media News: US, Bulgaria finalize 10-year defense pact as Sofia says it will seek F-35 fighters

AP: U.S. Sees ‘Important Progress’ In Helsinki Nuclear Arms Talks

Bloomberg: Navy Sees 4-1 Odds For Budget Bloat On $12 Billion-Plus Carriers

Air Force Magazine: L3Harris, SpaceX to Build SDA’s First Missile-Tracking Satellites

C4ISRNET: Space Force Gets Its First Vice Chief Of Space Operations

The Drive: Behold HMS Queen Elizabeth’s First Carrier Strike Group

Stars and Stripes: Years After They Fought In Afghanistan, U.S. Troops Watch As Their Children Deploy To The Same War

Fox News: F-35 Sends Targets To Ground Soldiers And Army Soldiers Send Targets Up To F-35s

Stars and Stripes: ‘Terminal Lance’ Author Returns With Graphic Novel Featuring ‘Indomitable’ Marine Hero

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why latest findings on Putin’s use of nerve agent against Alexei Navalny are so crucial

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 7

9 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual Wright Information Technology Summit, with Air Force Col. Scott McKeever, director of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force’s Strategic Studies Group. https://daytonwrightafcea.wildapricot.org/event

9 a.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “The U.S. Army’s Project Convergence, the Army’s priorities for new weapons systems and readiness, and the implications of looming budget constraints,” with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy. https://www.hudson.org/events

9 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy webinar: “The Yemen Matrix: Untangling the Relationships that Drive the War,” with Elana DeLozier, adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies; and Stephen Seche, executive vice president of the Arab Gulf States Institute. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy

9:30 a.m. — National Defense Transportation Association and U.S. Transportation Command virtual fall meeting, Army Gen. Stephen Lyons, commander of the U.S. Transportation Command. https://www.ndtahq.com/events/fall-meeting/

10 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “The New Race for Space: Success and Challenges in the Final Frontier,” with Acting Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Space Policy Justin Johnson; Dean Cheng, senior research fellow in the Heritage Asian Studies Center; Acting NASA Associate Administrator for International and Interagency Relations Michael Gold; and Henry Hertzfeld, director of the George Washington University Space Policy Institute. https://www.heritage.org/space-policy/event

10 a.m. — United States Institute of Peace webinar: “Empowering Afghan Women and Protecting Their Rights,” with State Department Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues Kelley Currie; Acting Afghanistan Minister of Women’s Affairs Hasina Safi; Deputy Afghanistan Minister of Interior Affairs Hosna Jalil; Habiba Sarabi, Afghan government negotiation team member; Palwasha Hassan, executive director of the Afghan Women’s Educational Center; Jenny McGee, associate administrator for relief, response and resilience at the U.S. Agency for International Development; Karen Freeman, deputy assistant administrator for Afghanistan and Pakistan at USAID; Scott Worden, director of Afghanistan and Central Asia programs at USIP; and Belquis Ahmadi, senior program officer for Afghanistan at USIP. https://www.usip.org/index.php/events

11:30 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room 2D972 — Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen Lord; Assistant Secretary of Defense for Acquisition Kevin Fahey; and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Acquisition Stacy Cummings brief reporters on the rewrite of the overarching policy on the Defense Acquisition System. https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live

2 p.m. — Arizona State University McCain Institute for International Leadership book discussion on Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World, with author retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and former national security adviser; and Michael Crow, ASU president. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/authors-insights

3 p.m. — Center for Security Policy webinar: “Building the U.S. Strategic Relationship with African Nations.” with House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash.; retired Marine Corps Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, former commander of U.S. Africa Command; former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson; Lauren Ploch Blanchard, specialist in African affairs at the Congressional Research Service; and Matthew Bergman, founder of the Masai Children’s Initiative. https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event

9 p.m. Salt Lake City, Utah — The University of Utah hosts the 2020 vice presidential debate, with Vice President Mike Pence; and Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif. in the university’s Kingsbury Hall, Peery Marriott Auditorium.

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 8

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: ‘The U.S.-ROK Alliance and U.S. Policy Toward North Korea,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Korea and Japan Marc Knapper. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence Forum webcast, with David Albright, founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security. Video posted afterwards at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation

10:30 a.m. — NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană speaks on the “Future of NATO” at a seminar organised by Aspen institute, in partnership with the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Istituto Affari Internazionali and the Spanish Real Instituto Elcano.A transcript will be available on the NATO website following the event. https://www.nato.int

4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion of the book Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World, with author retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and former national security adviser. https://www.csis.org/events/online-book-event

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 9

8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual South China Sea Conference, with Elbridge Colby, co-founder and principal of the Marathon Initiative; and Bonnie Glaser, director of the CSIS China Power Project. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event

9 a.m. — Arms Control Association virtual discussion: “Trump’s Effort to Sabotage New START and the Risk of an All-Out Arms Race,” with Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., Alexandra Bell, senior policy director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation; Daryl Kimball, ACA executive director; and Kingston Reif, ACA disarmament and threat reduction policy director. https://www.armscontrol.org/events

2:30 p.m. — Center for the National Interest webinar: “Secrets and Lies: The Role of Truth in Great Power Information Warfare,” with Amb. Thomas Pickering, vice chairman, Hills and Company; John Mearsheimer, Professor, Political Science University of Chicago; Konstantin Remchukov, editor in chief, Nezavisimaya Gazeta in Moscow; Dimitri Simes, president and CEO, Center for the National Interest. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

TUESDAY | OCTOBER 13

10 a.m. — Day one of “AUSA Now,” the Association of the U.S. Army’s 2020 virtual annual meeting, with Secretary of the Army Ryan McCarthy, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville and other Army leaders. McCarthy and McConville will hold a press conference in the Pentagon Press Briefing Room at 10:45 a.m. Register at https://meetings.ausa.org/annual/Attendee

TBA — Defense One webcast “State of the Navy,” with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday. https://www.defenseone.com/feature

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 16

9 a.m. — Aspen Security Forum: “President Trump’s National Security Agenda,” with national security adviser Robert O’Brien and Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser to President George W. Bush. https://aspeninst.zoom.us/webinar/register

9 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project webinar: ‘The Prospect For Peace In Afghanistan,” with Amb. Edmund Fitton-Brown, coordinator, ISIL, al-Qaida and Taliban Monitoring Team, UNSC; and Dr. Ellinor Zeino, country representative, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Afghanistan. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register