WHITE HOUSE: RUSSIA ‘PRIVATELY MOBILIZING FOR WAR’

FALSE FLAG ALERT: At the State Department, spokesman Ned Price described Russian forces moving into what he called “fighting positions,” and he said the U.S. was watching for an expected “false flag” operation that Putin could use as a pretext for sending his troops, now numbering more than 150,000, across the border.

“We’ve also seen Russian officials and Russian media plant numerous stories in the press, any one of which could be elevated to serve as a pretext for an invasion,” Price said. “This could happen, we are concerned, at any time, and the world should be ready for it. It could involve claims about Ukrainian military activity in the Donbass, false claims of U.S. or NATO activities on land at sea or air. Even claims of Ukrainian or NATO incursions into Russian territory.”

“We are particularly concerned about President Putin and other Russian officials, their ongoing mentions of quote-unquote ‘genocide in the Donbass,’” Price said. “There is no basis of truth to any of these allegations. This, however, has not stopped the Russians from advancing these false claims to include reports of unmarked mass graves of civilians allegedly killed by Ukrainian armed forces.”

‘GENOCIDE’ CLAIM POSSIBLE RUSSIAN PRETEXT FOR UKRAINE ATTACK, DEMOCRATS SAY

WHERE’D THAT BRIDGE COME FROM? Among the signs Russia is still preparing for a military offensive is the sudden appearance of a pop-up pontoon bridge in Belarus, less than four miles from its border with Ukraine.

Commercial satellite imagery from the U.S.-based Maxar Technologies revealed the bridge spanning the Pripyat River which was not there two days ago, along with the movement of attack helicopters to forward locations, and a new, large field hospital.

“This is not a staged battle drill that they do periodically,” said Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Jack Reed on CNN. “Building that bridge was clearly to facilitate armored vehicles and other motorized vehicles and getting into the Ukraine and to support the offensive operations. They are positioned with a hundred thousand plus troops, combat support elements, combat hospitals, ammunition dumps, et cetera, to conduct an operation.”

“That bridge … over the Pripyat River leads right into the Pripyat marshes. This is some very difficult terrain,” said retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling on CNN, where he is now a military analyst. But Hertling said the Russian forces appear to not yet be poised for imminent attack.

“We have not seen that preparatory movement into attack positions. We have seen sort of the deception efforts,” said Hertling, who is the former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe. “When you’re talking about moving forces forward, especially a combined arms army the size of 150,000 soldiers, there is a lot of movement that’s taking place.”

WHAT INVASION? Meanwhile, Moscow continues to insist all this talk of invasion is just hysteria whipped up by the U.S.

The “hysteria … profoundly puzzles us,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, while Moscow’s ambassador to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, told German daily newspaper Welt that “there won’t be an attack this Wednesday. There won’t be an escalation next week either, or in the week after, or in the coming month,” according to the Associated Press.

US NAVY AIRCRAFT HAVE CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH RUSSIAN MILITARY JETS

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE

Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!

NOTE TO READERS: Daily of Defense will not publish Monday, Feb. 21, in observance of the Presidents’ Day federal holiday. We’ll be back in your inbox Tuesday, Feb. 22.

HAPPENING TODAY: At NATO headquarters in Brussels, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg hold a joint press conference at 7:30 a.m. at the conclusion of the two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers.

The briefing will be livestreamed on both the Pentagon and the NATO websites.

Yesterday, NATO released a statement saying that it remains “gravely concerned by the very large scale, unprovoked and unjustified Russian military build-up” on the borders of Ukraine.

“As a consequence and to ensure the defense of all allies, we are deploying additional land forces in the eastern part of the alliance, as well as additional maritime and air assets,” the statement said. “Our measures are and remain preventive, proportionate and non-escalatory.”

“We urge Russia, in the strongest possible terms, to choose the path of diplomacy.”

NATO AND US ON EDGE, SEE NO PROOF OF RUSSIAN MILITARY WITHDRAWAL

ALSO TODAY: Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are both headed to Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference, which begins tomorrow. Also attending is John Kerry, the U.S. special presidential envoy for climate.

The Munich Conference is the premier gathering of Western and European leaders and defense officials, and traditionally hosts a large contingent of U.S. lawmakers. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is leading a delegation of Democrats traveling to Germany as well as Israel and the United Kingdom.

While South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham is leading a bipartisan congressional delegation of House and Senate members.

“The conference is a ‘marketplace of ideas’ where initiatives and solutions are developed and opinions are exchanged. It also provides a venue for diplomatic initiatives and ideas to cooperatively address the world’s most pressing security concerns,” said Graham in a press release, noting that In addition to a number of international leaders and decision-makers, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Defense Secretary Mark Esper are also attending.

DISCORD ON SANCTIONS: New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is blaming Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for the demise of a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill that he had dubbed “the mother of all sanctions.”

“Look, we worked in good faith, I believe, for several weeks,” Menendez said on CNN. “You know, when Senator McConnell, the Republican leader, last week said, ‘Well, I don’t really think we need a sanctions packet because the president has all the authorities he needs,’ that put … some cold water on the effort.”

Republicans have a different take. “We negotiated in good faith, I think Bob was negotiating in good faith. I was,” said Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, ranking Republican on the committee, on PBS. “There were a lot of portions that were negotiated back and forth. What it really came down to, I think, was just a good-faith disagreement on how strong the sanctions should be.”

“The big difference between our two approaches is in our bill, we impose secondary sanctions on Russian banks,” said Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey on CNN. “And what that does, that has the effect of really shutting down the Russian economy, probably crashes the ruble, makes it very difficult for them to sell even oil and gas anywhere in the world.”

“If Moscow is listening in, and I suspect they may be, this is not a Republican-Democrat fight,” said Risch. “This problem is an American problem, and if there is an invasion, there will be sanctions as described by the president and described by my bill with secondary sanctions. Moscow should understand that.”

REPUBLICANS GO IT ALONE ON RUSSIA SANCTIONS BILL AS TENSIONS MOUNT

INDUSTRY WATCH: Northrop Grumman Corporation has reported a milestone in the production of the F-35, America’s premier fighter jet. The company says its high-tech robotic assembly line produced the 900th center fuselage this week.

Northrop Grumman is a principal partner to Lockheed Martin Corporation in the design, development, production, and sustainment of the F-35.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: White House: Russia ‘privately mobilizing for war’

Washington Examiner: White House won’t define Russian deescalation but ‘will know it when we see it’

Washington Examiner: NATO and US on edge, see no proof of Russian military withdrawal

Washington Examiner: ‘Genocide’ claim possible Russian pretext for Ukraine attack, Democrats say

Washington Examiner: Russia recognizing breakaway Ukraine region ‘gross violation of international law’

Washington Examiner: Republicans go it alone on Russia sanctions bill as tensions mount

Washington Examiner: US Navy aircraft have close encounter with Russian military jets

Washington Examiner: France: Iran could ‘trigger a serious crisis’ within days

Washington Examiner: Migrants sew mouths shut in protest for access to US border

Washington Examiner: Recruiter relieved of duty for drunken driving: Navy

AP: Doubting Russian exit, NATO looks to bolster its defenses

AP: Russia sends warplanes to Syria for huge naval drills in Med

Stars and Stripes: Naval Presence In Mediterranean And Black Seas At Highs Rarely Seen Since Cold War

Wall Street Journal: Beijing Weighs How Far To Back Moscow

Military Times: China Now More Willing, Able To Challenge U.S. Military, Report Says

NBC News: Taiwan Watching Ukraine Crisis With ‘Concern And Anxiety,’ Says Top Diplomat In U.S.

Breaking Defense: North Korea’s Hypersonic Missile Claims Are Credible, Exclusive Analysis Shows

Bloomberg: Pentagon gets its target budget number from White House Office

USNI News: Hill Closer To An FY 22 Budget Deal As Navy Warns Against More CRs; White House Sets Pentagon FY 23 Topline at More than $770B

Defense News: Submarine Maintenance Backlogs And Delays Take Toll On Fleet’s Development Work At Sea

Air Force Magazine: USAF Sends F-35s, B-52s, F-15s to Europe as NATO Ministers Opt for More Deterrence

Space News: China Proposes Formal Lines of Communication With US on Space Safety

Air Force Magazine: Federal Judge Blocks Air Force From Enforcing Vaccine Mandate for Officer at Robins

Air Force Magazine: New Pentagon Report Raises Alarm Over Industry Consolidation, Future of Competition

USNI News: CNO Gilday Taking a More ‘Realistic’ Approach to Unmanned Systems in the Fleet

Defense One: Navy Chief Sees Robot Ships Alongside Aircraft Carriers Within Five Years

Defense News: Carrier Carl Vinson Was Back In Fighting Condition Within 45 Minutes Of F-35C Crash, Leaders Say

USA Today: Water Remains Unsafe For Thousands Of People In Hawaii, Months After Navy Petroleum Leak Near Pearl Harbor

USNI News: Navy Approves First Religious COVID-19 Vaccine Exemption With Conditions

Marine Corps Times: Religious Exemptions For Vaccines Given To Marines Already Leaving The Corps

19fortyfive.com: NGAD: New US Air Force Stealth Fighter Could Be ‘Head Coach’ for Drones

19fortyfive.com: Tempest: The UK Has Big Plans for a Stealth 6th Generation Fighter

19fortyfive.com: The US Navy’s Block V Virginia-Class Submarine: The Best Sub Ever?

Calendar

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 17

8:30 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual book discussion on “The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict,” with author Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant defense secretary for strategy and force development https://www.gmfus.org/event/strategy-denial-american-defense-age-great-power-conflict

10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Franklin Parker to be assistant secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs; Agnes Schaefer to be assistant secretary of the Army for manpower and reserve affairs; Ravi Chaudhary to be assistant secretary of the Air Force for energy, installations, and the environment; and Frank Calvelli to be assistant secretary of the air force for space acquisition and integration https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nominations

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Ukraine on the Eve of the Munich Security Conference,” with Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio and ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; and Kenneth Weinstein, distinguished fellow, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-ukraine

10 a.m. — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Aerospace Nation discussion: “Spectrum Warfare,” with Maj. Gen. Daniel Simpson, assistant Air Force deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; Air Force Col. William Young, commander of the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing; former assistant deputy defense undersecretary for airborne reconnaissance Maj. Gen. Ken Israel; and Ken Dworkin, executive adviser for electromagnetic combat at Booz Allen Hamilton https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/aerospace-nation-spectrum-warfare

10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “The Olympics and Russian Invasion,” with Robert McConnell, co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation; Gonul Tol, director of the MEI Turkey Program; Iulia Joja, director of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative; and retired Air Force Gen. Phillip Breedlove, chair of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative https://www.mei.edu/events/olympics-and-russian-invasion

10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association’s Standing Committee on Law and National Security virtual National Security Law conference discussion: “The National Security Implications of Domestic Discord: How Our Adversaries Create, Enhance, and Use Our Internal Disagreements Against Us,” with Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew Olsen https://web.cvent.com/event

11 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center’s Middle East Program virtual book discussion on “The Unfinished History of the Iran-Iraq War: Faith, Firepower, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,” with author Annie Tracy Samuel, assistant professor of history at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/documenting-irgc

12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion: “The Future of Conservative Foreign Policy,” with former State Department Policy Planning Staff Director Peter Berkowitz, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Washington Post Live event: “World Stage: Crisis in Ukraine,” with William Taylor, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

1 p.m. — JINSA policy webinar: “What’s At Stake for U.S. & Israel in the Russia-Ukraine Crisis?” with retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe; former commander U.S. European Command

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 18

All Day — The Munich Security Conference begins and goes through Sunday. Feb. 20 at its traditional venue, the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend, along withUkrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also plans to participate.https://securityconference.org/en/news/full/information

8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Japan Institute of International Affairs virtual 2022 U.S.-Japan Security Seminar, with Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi; Kenichiro Sasae, president of JIIA; Tetsuo Kotani, senior fellow at JIIA; and Bonnie Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project https://www.csis.org/events/2022-us-japan-security-seminar

10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association virtual National Security Law conference with sessions on “The End of Forever War? Now What?” and “The Future of National Security Surveillance” https://web.cvent.com/event

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 22

10 a.m. — Center for a New American Security Mission Brief: “The Future of the Army National Guard,” with Lt. Gen. Jon Jensen, director, Army National Guard; and Becca Wasser, fellow, CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/mission-brief-the-future-of-the-army-national-guard