President Joe Biden‘s efforts to hover in the center and appeal to both Democrats and Republicans have proven to be effective for Democratic presidents in the past — but a permanent stay could alienate his progressive voter base and endanger his reelection chances.
With the 2024 election approaching, Biden has been touting his bipartisan accomplishments and policies with one notable exception: the southern border. The influx of immigrants at the border has deeply divided Republicans and Democrats, but ahead of reelection, Biden appears to be taking a page out of former President Bill Clinton‘s book to appeal to centrist voters.
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Before his reelection, Clinton passed welfare reform in 1996 that overhauled six decades of federal government control and created a new cash assistance program. He also signed the 1994 crime bill that provided billions to law enforcement and prisons and included the Violence Against Women Act and billions for prevention programs.
Clinton’s decisions gave him a boost among independent and swing voters, helping him secure reelection in 1996. Now, Biden is appearing to walk that same path by engaging in border discussions with Republicans that, among the proposals, would make it harder for immigrants to seek asylum and make it easier for them to be expelled, in exchange for Republican support of Ukraine aid.
With voters across several polls indicating that the crisis at the southern border is among their top priorities when selecting a president, this move from Biden could draw in the voters who disagree with him on border policy but otherwise prefer his agenda to that of former President Donald Trump, who is the 2024 Republican front-runner.
It could be too little, too late, however. Republicans are weary of the idea of engaging in border conversations, given many surveys show immigration may be the nail in the coffin for Biden’s campaign. Some Republicans are hesitant to cut a deal on a problem that serves as a weakness for Biden in the 2024 race, worrying that it could instead help Biden’s campaign appeal to voters.
Former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Scott Perry (R-PA) told Politico that he is not concerned about a deal, believing it will ultimately not amount to anything significant.
“I’m not worried because I’m not going to make a deal that’s going to be terrible — and I don’t think he’s going to be willing to make a deal that I will accept,” Perry said.
Biden’s work to hug the center also could cause a severe backlash among his established base, particularly progressives, immigration activists, and Latino voters who have typically sided with the Democratic Party on most topics. The groups have already conveyed displeasure to the White House about engaging in border talks with Republicans, warning that any crackdown resembling Trump-era immigration policy will pull away their support.
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“I’m an absolute ‘no’ on any bill that’s going to change asylum status or remove parole,” Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-IL) said. “We shouldn’t be scapegoating immigrant lives over our supplemental.”
Progressives also worry that the appearance of Biden selling out immigrants to receive more Ukraine aid could alienate his traditionally loyal voter base and hurt him in his reelection campaign. The Immigration Hub, a progressive group, warned the White House in a letter that “accepting GOP demands is accepting a deficit in support for President Biden in 2024.”
