President Obama’s bid for re-election would seem to be set against a treacherous political playing field, with a fragile economy and skyrocketing gas prices driving his approval ratings to their lowest ebb. Yet the White House is buoyed by a muddled, late-starting field of would-be Republican challengers that has yet to gain traction with the most loyal conservatives and remains even less likely, they say, to inspire independents.
“We like where we’re at,” said one administration official. “It’s early, but quite frankly, the other side is a mess.”
Four years ago, at this stage of the presidential race, Republicans had nearly a dozen serious candidates vying for the party’s nomination. But on the eve of the first Republican debate in South Carolina this week, there are few serious contenders to take the stage.
It’s a situation with which some Republicans have grown weary.
“President Obama’s failed policies have seriously jeopardized our nation’s future and it’s time for Republicans to show leadership and engage in a battle of ideas,” said former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, one of the few GOP contenders who will participate in the debate. “It’s important that Republicans show up now, talk about their records, and begin the debate on how best we can defeat this president.”
The Republican field is so muddled 18 months from the election that less than half of all Americans can identify a single Republican candidate, a Pew Research survey showed. With a lack of determined challengers, real estate magnate and reality TV star Donald Trump, whose seriousness is widely questioned, is leading or near the top of the field in most polls.
Democrats claim the lack of a viable GOP challenger is a sign that Republicans won’t be able to back up their boasts of limiting Obama to one term.
“It’s clearly a sign of the strength of the Obama administration,” said Democratic pollster Margie Omero. “Despite no front-runner, [potential candidates] are still holding back. And we’re past the point of some universally beloved, well-funded candidate emerging.”
Still, Obama is far from a shoo-in for re-election.
Obama was trailing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, perhaps the closest thing to a front-runner in the nascent stages of the Republican primary, among New Hampshire voters, recent polls showed.
White House officials are banking that the eventual Republican challenger will be forced to move so far to the right to win the primary election that the eventual GOP nominee will turn off independents seeking a centrist candidate.
“Any time you see Donald Trump at the top of the polls, it’s clearly troubling,” said University of Louisville political science professor Dewey Clayton. “It is kind of perplexing. Four years ago, Republicans were lined up — many of them now realize how difficult it will be to go up against a billion-dollar war chest.”
Yet Republicans say it’s far too early to draw conclusions about their ability to take down Obama, arguing that his spending record, as well as a series of big-government policies, will allow conservatives to easily unite behind the eventual nominee. They also say Obama will be unable to replicate the excitement that produced droves of new voters in 2008, further leveling the electoral map.
