Judging by the pundits and the talking heads, Republicans have already lost the message war over the debt ceiling. Conventional wisdom portrays them as intransigent, refusing Democratic offers of huge spending cuts in exchange for modest tax -- or "revenue" -- increases. When Reps. John Boehner, Eric Cantor and their colleagues go to the White House, President Obama is "the adult in the room," while Republicans are the children, threatening to blow up the economy rather than let go of their precious tax cuts.
The picture looks a little different inside the GOP camp. Republican leaders believe they can win the battle on taxes because, however the debt fight turns out, voters will evaluate them based on the issue they care about most: jobs and the economy. "The public wants to make sure that whatever comes out of this will have a positive impact on the economy and job creation," says a Republican closely involved in the debt ceiling talks. "The challenge for Republicans is connecting this debate to the economy and job creation."
Look at any Republican statement these days, and it will most likely link the debt fight to jobs. For example, on Monday, after Obama threatened to veto the GOP's "cut, cap and balance" proposal -- White House spokesman Jay Carney called it "duck, dodge and dismantle" -- Boehner issued a statement that began by bemoaning Obama's rejection of a "common-sense plan to rein in the debt and deficits that are hurting job creation in America."
Even as opponents criticize them as inflexible, look for Republicans to become even more inflexible on taxes and fight back even harder against the charge that their tax cuts would send the deficit into the stratosphere. As it has in the past, the battle will be fought over the Bush tax cuts.
"Everybody talks about how much the Bush tax cuts cost, and we're saying, no, they led to a huge increase in revenue," says the Republican involved in the fight. It's true. According to historical tables published by the Office of Management and Budget, government revenue shot higher after the Bush tax cuts were enacted. Total federal government receipts rose from $1.782 trillion in 2003 to $2.567 trillion in 2007 -- an increase of $785 billion, or 44 percent. In 2007, the federal deficit shrank to $160 billion -- all after tax cuts that Obama and his Democratic allies portray as disastrous.
That recent history is at the heart of the conflict between Republicans and Obama over taxes. "The president's view of tax reform is tax increases," says the Republican. "Republicans view tax reform as setting tax rates to maximize economic activity."
While they continue the message war, Republicans are moving the real war to another level. After weeks of useless negotiations with the White House, they're taking the debt issue into their own hands with the passage of cut, cap and balance, in defiance of Obama's veto threat. Republicans know the president and Senate Democrats can stop it, but they believe it's important to stake out their ground.
"Republicans are laying out a starting point with cut, cap and balance," says the Republican. "They're saying to the president, 'We have actually passed something. It's time for you to come up with your proposal.' In the background, everybody is trying to figure out the [Mitch] McConnell plan."
Many GOP strategists believe that a single question -- "Where are the jobs?" -- played a key role in the Republicans' victory last November. After taking office, House GOP leaders got tangled up in the continuing resolution fight and then the debate over Medicare cuts, leading some Republicans to question what had happened to the jobs agenda. Now, they believe the debt ceiling fight is another front in the jobs fight. It's no accident that when Obama staged his Twitter town hall recently, Boehner sent in a four-word question: "Where are the jobs?" As long as the jobs aren't appearing, Republicans will keep saying it.
"The biggest problem the president has right now is that he is trying to make his arguments with an anemic economy and staggering deficits," says the Republican involved in the fight. "He's saying, 'I've got an economic plan,' and they're responding, 'You mean like the last one?' "
Republicans know they're losing the message battle, but in the end, they are convinced that they'll win the war.
Byron York, The Examiner's chief political correspondent, can be contacted at byork@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears on Tuesday and Friday, and his stories and blogposts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.
