Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry have been disqualified from appearing on the Virginia Republican primary ballot, a significant blow to two candidates relying on southern state victories to carve a path to the GOP nomination.
The disqualification is particularly devastating for Gingrich, who is the frontrunner in Virginia, according to polls. The development could erode what was expected to be a strong showing for the former House speaker in the early voting states of New Hampshire and Iowa if voters start to view him as a less viable candidate. Gingrich also could lose support in South Carolina, where he currently holds a double-digit lead over the rest of the GOP field.
For Perry, it was the latest stumble in a campaign in which the Texas governor never recovered from a string of poor debate performances.
The ouster of the two candidates means that only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Ron Paul will appear on Virginia's primary ballot. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Jon Huntsman lacked the campaign resources to gather enough qualifying signatures.
"It is a tremendous embarrassment to Gingrich's campaign, just as it is to the others who didn't make it on the ballot," University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato told The Washington Examiner. "Look, Newt and Perry are the two Southern candidates. Shouldn't they have devoted special effort to making the Virginia ballot? And Gingrich has been leading all recent polls in Virginia. The frontrunner has been ruled off the ballot. That is remarkable."
The Republican Party of Virginia announced early Saturday that Gingrich did not submit the 10,000 valid signatures needed to be on the ballot for Virginia's primary, which takes place during the multi-state, Super Tuesday contest on March 6. Hours earlier, state GOP officials booted Perry off the ballot as well for failing to produce the requisite signatures. The Gingrich and Perry camps said they had collected 11,050 and 11,911 signatures, respectively, but Virginia political insiders said it is typical for many signatures to be ruled invalid and tossed out.
With five of the seven candidates disqualified, Virginia's ballot fiasco could have an immediate impact on odds that the excluded candidates can win in Iowa, where the caucuses will be held in a little more than a week, and New Hampshire, which holds the nation's first primary on Jan. 10, said Patrick Hynes, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire.
"When you tell voters you are not going to play in certain states, you are telling them you are not going to win," Hynes said.
University of Iowa political science professor Timothy Hagle said the exclusion could be particularly harmful in the Hawkeye State for candidates like Santorum, whose recent surge has edged him into double digits in the polls for the first time.
"Something like this can cause potential caucus goers to possibly look elsewhere if they are worried about his long-term ability to get the nomination," Hagle said. "Bachmann didn't seem to be starting a surge, but her numbers have also crept up a bit, so she could also be hurt."
Virginia, which has 50 GOP delegates up for grabs, has a notoriously difficult ballot hurdle for candidates. Not only do hopefuls have to acquire the 10,000 signatures, but they also must include 400 signatures from each of the state's 11 congressional districts. Other states, including South Carolina, do not require candidates to furnish any signatures to gain access to the ballot.
Gingrich has pledged to launch "an aggressive write-in campaign" and Perry's camp say they may appeal the Virginia GOP's decision.
"Only a failed system excludes four out of the six major candidates seeking access to the ballot," Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said Saturday. "Voters deserve the right to vote for any top contender, especially leading candidates. "
