BALTIMORE — Saturday’s 136th Preakness Stakes is all about angles.
Dialed In is the choice for the “bounce theory” where losing Kentucky Derby favorites rebound in the Preakness.
Norman Asbjornson is the “home track” pick for second because long-shot Maryland horses often seem to nearly steal the Pimlico race.
Animal Kingdom is third because many surprise Derby winners still run well in defeat in the Triple Crown’s second leg.
Easy money — it’s a Dialed In-Norman Asbjornson-Animal Kingdom triple that probably pays less than $200. Still, send me 10 percent of your winnings.
The Preakness seems the more formful race in the Triple Crown in recent years. The winners need a smart rider who stays just off the early lead, but often no worse than fourth, and waits until midway on the turn before moving and then clears off in the final 1Ú16 mile. A classic Preakness.
But it’s never that simple even if appearing so.
Dialed In doesn’t run like the typical Preakness winner. He’s going to be farther back and in the shorter 13Ú16-mile race that’s a liability. But Dialed In is better than shown in the Derby when he never truly mounted a challenge and finished eighth. There was a spurt in the lane when he passed five horses and proved he has the kick.
Can jockey Julien Leparoux keep Dialed In closer to make that late move? It’s the whole race. Leparoux and trainer Nick Zito will surely game plan this better than the Derby.
Dialed In may end up being the favorite despite being the early second choice. Preakness fans remember many badly beaten Derby choices that won the second leg. Snow Chief (1986), Hansel (1991) and Prairie Bayou (1992) found redemption on Old Hilltop.
Norman Asbjornson is a Bowie-based son of 1998 Preakness champion Real Quiet, who oddly enough has never raced in Maryland. And, with just two non-stakes wins, he should be a big long shot. But local trainers have an edge that often moves up overlooked Preakness runners like 1983 winner Deputed Testamony plus runners-up Oliver’s Twist (1995), Magic Weisner (2002), Scrappy T (2005) and Sweetnorthernsaint (2006).
That Norman Asbjornson finished second in the Gotham Stakes and fourth in the Wood Memorial shows he’ll compete. The colt won’t win, but enhances exacta and triple tickets at 20-1.
Animal Kingdom has done nothing wrong to merit disrespect. He won the Derby fairly at 20-1 and has an interesting resume with dirt, synthetic track and turf wins in just five starts.
Animal Kingdom will run well and should hit the board, but this is the largest field since 2005, and the 14 horses will likely produce a roughly run first turn. Jockeys know they can steal this race so look for horses to get bounced around, and Animal Kingdom to suffer the pinball act.
There’s no super horse in this year’s Preakness, but a few seem clearly better. Dialed In will win by two lengths over Norman Asbjornson with Animal Kingdom a neck behind.
Examiner columnist Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Read more on Twitter @Snide_Remarks or email [email protected].
