Continuing the exercise started Tuesday on what the Caps would do if they became sellers: I already tackled the benefits and drawbacks of trading defenseman Dennis Wideman. Another obvious chip is forward Alex Semin, the longest-tenured member of the organization.
There’s a reason Semin and his agent, Mark Gandler, chose the one-year extension route last January even though he was headed to unrestricted free agency last summer. Semin was comfortable here, he was on a winning team and the collective bargaining agreement is expiring. This gave their side maximum flexibility if the new CBA isn’t to their liking – Semin will always have the option to go back home to Russia and the KHL and get paid – and a year to build more value.
Unfortunately, Semin’s value has likely taken a hit. He’s at 16 goals this season and 21 assists (37 points). That’s .67 points per game - not what you expect for $6.7 million and for the second year in a row well off his 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons when he averaged 1.3 and 1.2 points per game, respectively. He’s remarkably consistent in penalty minutes, averaging between .86 and 1.24 penalty minutes per game over the last six years. This year he’s again at a team-high .91. And, of course, his rental status, also hurts any trade value.
Then again, you can argue Semin’s not playing with a center commensurate to his talent level. Durability has long been an issue – missing 17 games or more three of the last four years – but Semin is on pace to match his career-best in games played (77). He’s always been an underrated penalty killer. There are 314 NHLers with 40 games played this season and Semin ranks 182nd in lowest goals allowed/60 minutes on ice (2.52) - that's the 42nd percentile. Not great, but still better than five of the 12 Washington forwards who have played in at least 30 games. Better than Troy Brouwer (2.94), Nicklas Backstrom (2.87), Marcus Johansson (2.64), Alex Ovechkin (2.61) and Mike Knuble (2.54).
Maybe the best argument for Semin’s value is that he will come far, far cheaper than someone like Rick Nash at the trade deadline yet still has the world-class talent to make an impact on a team in need of offense and without the long-term commitment if things go south. He has plenty of playoff experience with 30 points in 37 games – though his production has fluctuated wildly from series to series over the years.
Remember the old Ted Leonsis rebuild mantra “a pick and a player”? Well, Semin should still be worth at least that much. The question is: How good is the player coming back in any deal, does he make sense for next season’s roster construction and beyond and is it worth losing the financial flexibility that would come with simply hanging onto Semin and letting him go? The Caps could always try to re-sign the soon-to-be 28-year-old (March 3). But there's a reason they readily agreed to a one-year deal last winter and a reason a similar deal apparently isn't in the cards this time around.
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