It’s week 10 of college football, with some of the biggest match-ups of the season. The College Football Playoff committee came out with its first set of rankings earlier this week so this might be the best day of the regular season if you’re looking for highly-ranked teams with a lot on the line going at it. Last week, my predictions went 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. That brings my numbers (through six weeks of picking games) to 10-8 straight up and 8-10 against the spread.
Here are three games to keep an eye on this Saturday:
No. 1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0) at No. 3 LSU (7-1, 4-1) – 8:00 p.m. ET on CBS
The SEC West crown is on the line, and these two squads will play for it under the lights in Death Valley.
Defending national champion Alabama has dominated this season. How dominant? The Crimson Tide have won every game they’ve played this season and they’ve won them all by at least three touchdowns. They’re averaging a school-record 54.1 points per game, best in the nation, with 347.4 yards per game through the air and 216.9 yards per game on the ground. The defense is also ranked in the top 10, allowing just less than 16 points per game.
Heisman front-runner Tua Tagovailoa is the engine that makes it all go. Did you know he still hasn’t played in the fourth quarter of a game this season? Alabama hasn’t needed him. The sophomore sensation is completing more than 70 percent of his passes and has thrown 25 touchdown passes and 0 (zero!) interceptions.
LSU comes in having won back-to-back home games in impressive fashion over No. 2 Georgia and No. 22 Mississippi State. I didn’t think LSU would be able to bully the Dawgs around and run them into the ground, but the Tigers ended up with 275 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 51 carries. Averaging 5.4 yards per carry against one of the country’s best defenses is outstanding. That being said, I’m not confident that LSU will be able to duplicate the feat against Alabama.
Offensively, the Tigers, who already have three wins over top-10 teams this season, will have to keep this game within arm’s length, because they don’t have the kind of passing attack to get back into it if ‘Bama starts to break it open. Cole Tracy kicked four field goals in LSU’s win over Mississippi State, but field goals won’t cut it against this phenomenal Alabama offense. The Tigers’ ideal scenario is getting off to a very fast start and then riding their defense and deafening crowd to the finish. Alabama hasn’t been seriously challenged yet this season. Will LSU be able to provide one?
The Line: Alabama (-14.5)
My Pick: These two teams typically play each other very close, but no Nick Saban team has ever had a quarterback like Tagovailoa and an offense like the one he has this year. This is a lot of points in this rivalry match-up, but I’ll take Alabama to win and cover.
No. 6 Georgia (7-1, 5-1) at No. 9 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1) – 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
This game might be one of the most important in Kentucky football history. The victor will lock up the SEC East title and earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game with a chance to advance to the CFP while the other will be eliminated from both the division race and any shot at the playoff. No pressure!
Both teams are coming off of wins, but they earned them in very different fashions. Georgia beat top-10 Florida by 19 points while Kentucky pulled off an incredible Houdini escape act, beating Missouri on an untimed play with no time remaining.
Mark Stoops deserves to win SEC Coach of the Year and be in the conversation for National Coach of the Year honors for the job he has done in rebuilding Kentucky’s program. The Wildcats have a traditional SEC identity of power run game combined with great defense. Georgia has both of those in spades as well. Kentucky’s defense is tied for first in the country, allowing just 13 points per game, while UGA is 12th at 16.4 points per game.
The Bulldogs have a very balanced offense, putting up 236.1 yards per game through the air and 221.6 yards per game on the ground. Georgia QB Jake Fromm is efficient and takes care of the ball. He has 16 TD passes against just four picks and completes more than 67 percent of his passes.
For Kentucky, as Benny Snell goes, so go the Wildcats. The junior running back has been a workhorse this year and is on the cusp of a 1,000-yard season. He’s averaging more than five yards per carry this year, but he only managed 67 yards on 19 carries against Missouri. If he puts up those kind of numbers against Georgia, Kentucky could be in big trouble.
Terry Wilson has been an effective game-manager and threw the clutch touchdown pass to beat Missouri, but he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season. Expect Georgia to stack the box against Snell and force Wilson to beat them with his arm.
The Line: Georgia (-8.5)
My Pick: I think this CFP and SEC East elimination game goes to the Bulldogs. I’m picking Georgia to win and cover.
No. 13 West Virginia (6-1, 4-1) at No. 17 Texas (6-2, 4-1) – 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Texas’ defense got shelled by Oklahoma State in the first half as the Cowboys put up 31 points. Those issues need to get fixed if they don’t want the Mountaineers’ top-20 offense to do the same thing to them again.
Sam Ehlinger nearly threw the Longhorns back into the game last week, but they came up just short. He can certainly sling it around, throwing 13 touchdowns against just two picks this season, but Texas shouldn’t want to put itself in a shootout with one of the nation’s most dangerous offenses. Texas only allowed 17 points against Baylor and held USC, Kansas State, and TCU under 20 as well. Which Longhorns defense are we going to see this week?
Will Grier’s Heisman candidacy lost some steam with the incredible play of Tagovailoa, Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, and Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray. He’s still having a great season, throwing for 25 touchdowns with just seven picks while completing over 70 percent of his passes. With the exception of their drubbing at the hands of Iowa State, the Mountaineers have looked very good on offense. They’ve been somewhat balanced, throwing for 331.3 yards per game and running for nearly 150 yards per game. Meanwhile, the defense is allowing less than 20 points per game, making the unit a top-25 scoring defense.
Texas was essentially eliminated from the CFP after last week’s loss to Oklahoma State, but a win against West Virginia would be a huge step towards the Longhorns staying in the driver’s seat in the Big 12 race. If West Virginia wins, it sets up a huge match up against Oklahoma in the season finale that would likely decide who wins the conference championship.
The Line: Texas (-2.0)
My Pick: The home crowd will help Texas, but I think West Virginia’s offense will exploit the problems the Longhorns have been having on defense. If WVU’s defense holds up its end of the bargain, I think the Mountaineers will win. That’s why I’m taking West Virginia to win as the road underdog.
Noah Niederhoffer (@Noah715) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
