This has not been a banner year for local college basketball teams. Is it possible that the Washington area could be shut out of the NCAA tournament? We rate the chances, weather-style, of the teams to make it:
5. American (6-12) »
The Eagles lack quickness, while Navy (7-12) lacks experience. In most years in the Patriot League, there still would be a chance. But Bucknell (16-3) is too powerful, and so is Lehigh (13-4), especially if C.J. McCollum returns. Chance: 2 percent.
4. George Washington (8-9) »
With four freshmen starting, the Colonials are a year away. Unless GW makes an unforeseen surge, it will have to win the conference tournament. Chance: 5 percent.
3. George Mason (11-7) »
With an RPI of 115, the best in the CAA, George Mason is resigned to being in a one-bid league. No longer having to contend with VCU in Richmond is a huge boost. The Patriots should enter as the tournament favorites. Chance: 50 percent.
2. Georgetown (13-4) »
Even without Greg Whittington, the Hoyas beat ranked Notre Dame on Monday night. Getting in the upper half of the still mighty Big East should ensure a bid. Without much depth, much hinges on the return of Whittington. Chance: 60 percent.
1. Maryland (14-4) » A .500 record in the ACC would give the Terrapins 21 wins, which should be enough. The talent is there, but there are some trouble spots, namely at point guard. Chance: 65 percent.
- Kevin Dunleavy