Whites will become a minority in America long before 2043, the expected shift year, and the flip will come as soon as 2018 for 18-year-olds, according to a new University of Michigan analysis.
"We are quickly becoming a more racially diverse society, beginning with our youth," said University of Michigan demographer William Frey.
"More than 70 percent of today's baby boomers and seniors are white, and they grew up during a time when the nation's minority population was relatively small and consisted mainly of African Americans," added Frey, with the U-M Institute for Social Research and at the Brookings Institution. "By contrast, 40 percent of those under age 35 belong to minority groups. They have grown up during a period when racial mingling is the norm at school, work, social occasions and houses of worship."
He released a tease of a study he's presenting March 19. Based on the latest U.S. Census data, Frey predicts:
- America will become a majority-minority population well before 2043, the year in which that shift had been expected.
- For those under the age of 18, however, the tipping point will arrive soonest--by 2018.
- Fast-growing states of the West and South will have the youngest and most racially diverse populations, while the non-coastal Northeast, Midwest and parts of the old South will remain home to large numbers of white baby boomers and seniors.