With a Chris Christie victory in New Jersey’s governor election a foregone conclusion, the one question mark in the November election is who will win the race for governor of Virginia? Recent polls suggest this is very much up for grabs. A Washington Post poll conducted from April 28 to May 2 had Republican Ken Cuccinelli ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe 51 percent-41 percent among likely voters, while an NBC-Marist poll conducted from April 29 to May 2 had Cuccinelli up 45 percent-42 percent among likely voters. Now, we have a Quinnipiac poll conducted May 8-13 showing McAuliffe up 43 percent-38 percent among registered voters.
Who’s really ahead? No one. The realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls has Cuccinelli ahead 41 percent-38 percent, leaving a high average of 21 percent undecided. That’s pretty high and suggests that this election is likely to be decided by what voters learn during the campaign — and by who turns out.