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Why I think Obama will win — in detail

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Forecasting elections, with my boss Bob Novak, used to be my full-time job. We did pretty well. In 2002, we correctly called a 51-49 U.S. Senate (we got two races wrong, and they cancelled each other out), and in 2004, we also did very well on House and Senate races, plus we called the Electoral College, I recall, within one state. In 2008, I thought Obama would get 52% of the vote, and 282...

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