Return to Washington Examiner Homepage
May 22, 2013 | 04:19 AM
politics
Washington D.C. weather
Politics

Year-end pundit atonement: Where I was wrong 2012

December 31, 2012 | 11:06 am
Leave a comment

I gotta admit, I think I did pretty well predicting and explaining U.S. politics this year. I dismissed talk of a Romney collapse in the primaries. I always saw Obama as the favorite in the general. I knew Obama would outspend Romney, and he did. I predicted the Supreme Court would uphold ObamaCare, and they did.

But I wasn’t always right. And I have a New Years Eve tradition, in the interest of accountability, of writing where I think I was most wrong during the year. In 2010, I focussed on three times my predictions or assessments were proven wrong by ensuing events. In 2011, I highlighted a failure of journalistic standards and a spectacularly poor read on Rick Perry’s chances.

Now for 2012, I’ll provide a list of what I think were my worst mistakes:

I thought Richard Mourdock would win the Indiana Senate seat. I said as much on the McLaughlin Group as I correctly predicted Mourdock’s primary victory. Mourdock, of course, lost, after an uncharitable interpretation of his statement that every child is a gift from God.

In a column on solar subsidies, I had to run two corrections. One correction was just a brain fart — writing “wind farm” instead of “solar farm.” Another correction was just sloppy reporting and fact-checking: I attributed to FirstSolar a subsidy that went to another company.

I repeatedly said Obama would outraise the GOP from Wall Street. I can’t find where I wrote it. I remember saying it on TV. I was way off.

I thought Romney would pick Rob Portman as his running mate. I said on McLaughlin Group that he would go either Rubio (if way ahead) or safe, if close. By “safe” I meant Portman, or maybe Tim Pawlenty. Ryan was safer than Rubio, but riskier than I expected.

I underestimated Obama’s victory: I correctly predicted an Obama win. In person, I was giving 2-to-1 odds on an Obama win. I thought the Electoral College would be closer, though. I called Florida and Virginia “leaning Romney.”

From WeeklyStandard.com

  • He’s No Nixon

    The thoughtful Carl Cannon has written a piece, " Richard Milhous Obama ," concluding that our current president has more in common with our 37th than President Obama's partisans would like to...

    Read More...

  • IRS's Lerner Had History of Harassment, Inappropriate Religious Inquiries at FEC

    Perhaps no other IRS official is more intimately associated with the tax agency's growing scandal than Lois Lerner, director of the IRS’s Exempt Organizations Division. Since admitting the IRS...

    Read More...

  • Yet Another Obamacare Design Flaw

    The more the evidence emerges, the more one has to wonder: Could Obamacare have been designed any more poorly? Even those who don’t mind Obamacare’s striking consolidation of power and money...

    Read More...