Joe Biden is leading President Trump in the swing state of Florida as the president faces skepticism from voters on his response to the coronavirus pandemic.
A University of North Florida poll asked registered Florida voters whether they would vote for Trump or the former vice president in November should Biden be the nominee. Biden earned 46% support, while the president had 40%.
That is an increase for Biden, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, from UNF’s last online poll conducted in February, when he led Trump by 1 point. It is also larger than the RealClearPolitics average of Florida matchup polls, with Biden barely leading Trump by 0.4%.
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The online poll was conducted from March 31 to April 4 among 3,244 registered Florida voters reached by email and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points.
“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters — not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” said Michael Binder, director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election.”
The UNF poll brought more bad news for Trump: Most voters, 53%, disapprove of what the president is doing to address the coronavirus pandemic, with 45% approving.
Florida, which Trump won by 1.2 percentage points in 2016, accounts for 29 electoral votes and is considered a toss-up in the general election by analysts at the Cook Political Report. The Trump campaign needs it badly for the president to win reelection. The Democratic ticket, presumably headed by Biden, could piece together an Electoral College majority without Florida, though winning it would be a big boost.
