Many Democrats backed Joe Biden in the primaries because they saw him embodying qualities 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton lacked: high personal approval ratings, a storied relationship with the white working class, and a career relatively free of scandal.
But polls show Biden faring substantially worse against President Trump in general election polls than Clinton did four years ago, ahead of her loss to the New York businessman that fall.
A RealClearPolitics average of polls has Biden leading Trump by 5.9 points, although a Fox News survey released Thursday had the two tied. A Monmouth poll released the day before had Biden up by 4.
That same Fox News poll had Clinton up by 7 at this point in the race in 2016, while a similarly timed Monmouth poll had her beating Trump by 10. An average of polls through late March to mid-April had her at 8.75 points.
Aside from one CNN poll, which appears to be an outlier, Biden has not cracked 50% support throughout April. By contrast, four reputable surveys taken in April 2016 showed Clinton enjoying 50% or higher. Trump has only dipped below 40% support once, at 39% support, according to one survey by CNBC that had Biden leading by 5 points.
In 2016, Trump dipped below 40% support four times in April, hitting a low of 35% support, according to one Investor’s Business Daily poll.
In swing states, Biden is faring significantly worse than Clinton as well. Polling out of Wisconsin at this time in 2016 was scarce, but the one survey from the month of April had Clinton leading by 12 points. Not one poll taken the entire election cycle showed Trump leading in the state, though he narrowly won it on Election Day by 0.7 percentage points, the first time a Republican captured the Badger State’s electoral votes since 1984.
A RealClearPolitics average currently has Biden leading in the state by 2.7 points, and he has led in every poll since March. A February poll from Quinnipiac University had Trump leading by 7 points.
Pennsylvania looks much the same, with Biden leading by an average of 3.8 points, although no reputable poll of the state’s voters has been released for the month of April. In 2016, Clinton regularly led Trump by double digits, with two polls taken in March and April of that year showing her leading by 13 and 15 points. Trump eventually won the state by 0.7 points.
In Michigan, where Trump’s victory was one of his narrowest at just 0.3 points, Biden’s lead is significantly lower in the polls than Clinton’s was. Although he currently leads by an average of 4.4 points, Clinton was regularly boasting a double-digit lead over Trump at this point in the race in 2016. Biden’s largest lead over Trump since February is 7 points, where he earned 48% of the vote.
Biden is performing substantially better than 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney in his challenge to then-President Barack Obama, however. Throughout the month of April 2012, Romney only bested the incumbent in three polls, with one Gallup poll showing his best lead throughout the race at 5 points. Obama won reelection with just over 51% of the vote, compared to Romney’s 47.2%.
