There have always been two ways to look at the midterm elections: The national environment heavily favors Democrats, but the congressional map gives Republicans a glimmer of hope to hold their majorities or at least avoid getting hammered by a historic blue wave.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) often points to the 21 seats in his chamber rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report when talking up Republican chances, but this week, the proprietor of that newsletter sounded a distinctly skeptical note.