Florida in crosshairs for ‘powerful’ Hurricane Dorian after system batters Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands

Dorian’s center was near the island of St. Thomas when the National Hurricane Center announced the storm has sustained maximum winds at 75 miles per hour, enough to become a Category 1 hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

St. Thomas, which is one of the U.S. Virgin Islands, is about 50 miles east of Puerto Rico. The storm, which is moving northwest at 13 miles per hour, will not make landfall over Puerto Rico, but its reach is expected to bring between four to 10 inches of rain to parts of these U.S. territories. Life-threatening flash floods, strong winds, and rough surf are also in the forecast and landslides and power outages are possible.

Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory of roughly 3.2 million Americans, is still recovering from the devastation from the 2017 hurricane season — the costliest in U.S. history at more than $200 billion in damages with powerful storms including Harvey, Irma, and Maria wreaking havoc in places like Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico.

Hurricanes Irma and Maria struck in September 2017. After Irma passed north of Puerto Rico, causing major damage, Maria slammed the island as a Category 4 hurricane. It became one of the deadliest natural disasters in U.S. history, blamed for roughly 3,000 deaths. Recovery efforts, which include rebuilding the power grid that was destroyed by Maria, have been hindered by poor infrastructure, political turmoil, and economic woes.

Puerto Rico Gov. Wanda Vázquez Garced, less than a month into her tenure, declared a state of emergency Monday evening, and emergency shelters are being prepared for tens of thousands of people. “I want everyone to feel calm,” Wanda Vázquez said. “Agency heads have prepared for the past two years. The experience of Maria has been a great lesson for everyone.”

On Tuesday, President Trump granted her request for a federal emergency declaration, unlocking resources for disaster response and relief.

Trump tweeted on Wednesday that his administration is “closely” tracking Dorian. He also continued his feud with San Juan Mayor Yulín Cruz Soto, the leader of the island’s largest city who was a vocal critic of Trump’s response to Maria. “FEMA and all others are ready, and will do a great job,” Trump said. “When they do, let them know it, and give them a big Thank You – Not like last time. That includes from the incompetent Mayor of San Juan!”

A day earlier, Trump claimed Congress approved $92 billion in disaster aid last year, calling it “an all time record of its kind for ‘anywhere.'”

Critics and fact-checkers were quick to point out that federal data show Congress has so far only allocated roughly $43 billion for Puerto Rico and the island only received less than $14 billion, as of May. Among them was Cruz Soto. “We are not going to be concerned by, frankly, his behavior, his lack of understanding, and it is ludicrous,” she told CNN on Tuesday. “So get out of the way, President Trump, and let people who can do the job get the job done.”

Also harping on the forecast were 2020 candidates for president. Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren said, “As Dorian heads towards Puerto Rico, the Trump administration must be prepared to provide assistance and resources. Puerto Rico is still suffering the effects of last season’s hurricanes. Now is not the time for insults, delays, or playing politics. Lives and homes are at risk.”

The Democrat also raised concerns about reports that the Trump administration is pulling millions of dollars from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to pay for border security. “This is a cruel, dangerous move—especially at the height of hurricane season,” she said.

After breaking out of the Virgin Islands, models show Dorian swinging out into the Atlantic around the Bahamas island chain, before curling west towards Florida. All the while forecasters expect Dorian to grow in strength over warm waters, potentially reaching Category 3 status by the time it nears the panhandle in the latter half of the weekend.

Gov. Ron DeSantis urged Florida residents to stay on alert. “All Floridians on the East Coast should have 7 days of supplies, prepare their homes & follow the track closely,” he tweeted Wednesday.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which the U.S. government uses to grade hurricane strength based on wind speed, says Category 3 storms have 111- to 129- miles-per-hour sustained maximum winds. In describing what type of damage could occur, the NHC says, “Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.”

In its latest discussion, the NHC said, [a]ll indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of the United States.” But it added a word of caution that the extended forecast is not a sure thing. “Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles,” it said.

Weather watchers noted on social media how the track for Dorian has already shifted and its forecast is far from certain. Some warned how places as far north as North Carolina should keep an eye on the storm.

Meteorologist Ryan Maue noted how if Dorian sweeps across the Florida panhandle, it could re-energize over the “bathtub warm waters” of the Gulf of Mexico.

Dorian is the fourth named storm and second hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.