The blame game in Washington has already begun. Grim internal polling already has Republicans pointing fingers over who is responsible for the anticipated bloodbath in November. Many of President Donald Trump’s MAGA supporters argue that Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-SD) failure to pass the SAVE Act, a bill intended to strengthen election integrity, has demoralized the Republican base. Staunchly pro-Israel commentators warn that the GOP may lose its Senate majority because of doubts sown by influencers like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene about the strategic value of the U.S.-Israel alliance.
The reality is simpler. This election will be a referendum on whether Trump fulfilled his promise to put “America First” above the interests of foreign nations and reject their lobbies and influence operations. From blue collar voters to under-45 independents, different constituencies joined the Trump coalition in 2024 hoping to put a stop to forever wars abroad and rein in the military-industrial complex. The early indications are that many of these voters are gravely disappointed that he launched a regime-change war of choice with Iran and has continued the proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, while ignoring the devastating impact these conflicts have had on Americans here at home.