With his economy imploding and his military suffering from massive losses of men and materiel, Russian President Vladimir Putin is under great pressure. Putin is highly unlikely to secure a military victory over Ukraine.
The Russian leader, however, is talking tough.
Likely reacting to escalating pressure to end the war from the billionaire caste of oligarchs who benefit from his regime, Putin lashed out at Russian expatriates on Wednesday. “I am not at all judging those who have a villa in Miami or the French Riviera, who cannot do without foie gras, oysters, or so-called gender freedoms.” But, Putin added, Russia would benefit from the “self-cleansing” of those Russians who prefer the West.
The problem with this strongman rhetoric is threefold.
First, these oligarchs provide the critical financial lubricant that sustains Putin’s corrupted regime. Losing access to this lubricant due to Western sanctions, Putin must thus fear the depreciating loyalty of the security and intelligence services. Second, the collapse of the ruble, soaring inflation, and coming unemployment are likely to mean many more Russians will seek the “self-cleansing” option in the next several months. Finally, and as an extension to the second point, as both generals and young Russian soldiers (in some cases, near entire units) keep coming home in body bags, Putin will face far more questions as to why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to be on television accepting the standing ovation of Western parliaments. Especially, that is, as Russia’s economy is in free fall.
How does Putin get himself out of the mess?
He appears to have chosen a dual track of tentative diplomatic compromise and military escalation.
On the diplomatic front, albeit quietly, Putin seems to be accepting that he must pursue a far less ambitious peace than the one he originally sought to impose upon Ukraine when his invasion began. Talks between Ukraine and Russia continue, with both sides suggesting progress has been made. Zelensky’s pledge that joining NATO is no longer a pursuit seems designed to give Putin an off-ramp that he can use to justify ending the war.
But Ukraine’s formidable resistance gives Zelensky negotiating capital to use to ensure his nation’s freedom to form closer relations with the West and to ensure its democratic character free from Kremlin subjugation. This is the very opposite of what Putin wants.
In turn, on the military front, Putin is pursuing a strategy of devastation and the dangling of nuclear war. Russian air force transport planes on Thursday simulated an evacuation from Moscow to various nuclear bunkers deep inside Russia. Leaving their geolocation transponders activated, something they absolutely would not do in a war, the planes seem to have been signaling to the West that Russia is ready to escalate. I will write more on this nuclear concern later on Thursday, but Putin’s intent is to divide European powers from Washington and encourage pressure on Zelensky to settle on terms favorable to Putin.
At the same time, Russian forces continue to pound Ukrainian civilians and cities rather than confront the crucible of Ukrainian anti-tank units. The intent, as best manifested by strikes on hospitals, schools, and a theater in Mariupol, is to coerce Zelensky to yield or face his people’s terrible suffering. These are deliberate war crimes, no different to those that Russia has committed in Syria in recent years. Regardless, they are the centerpiece of Russia’s military strategy.
The pivot point in all of this is whether the West buckles under Putin’s coercion or whether Putin buckles under his own domestic pressure. This need not mean Putin’s relinquishing of power or suffering a palace coup, but rather his acceptance of a near term peace that is preferential to Ukraine overall. Putin’s ultimate problem is the same: Ukraine’s resistance suggests its people will not yield — no matter what Russia does.
Time and the strategic initiative are not on Putin’s side.
