On the election campaign trail, about a dozen House Democrats have said they wouldn’t support Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House. Six times as many nonincumbent Democratic candidates say the same thing. That is, approaching 100 Democrats running for Congress say they don’t think Pelosi should get the gavel back if their party takes over the lower chamber.
So far, however, there is no reason to believe these boasts of rebellion and every reason to believe that Democrats would dutifully anoint the gentlewoman from San Francisco if or when they are in command on Capitol Hill. In light of this, we think reporters and Republican candidates who encounter supposedly anti-Pelosi Democrats on the trail should ask the tougher question:
Will you pledge to oppose Nancy Pelosi as speaker when it comes to a vote on the House floor?
Any Democrat who won’t say yes to that question — Ohio’s Danny O’Conner dodged the issue when confronted with it on national television — is implicitly admitting that he or she is squish and would hand Pelosi the gavel after pro forma rhetorical opposition, if that.
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As each Congress gathers on Capitol Hill, the two parties meet separately and decide who they will nominate as speaker. Various candidates put themselves forward. Members vote. Eventually, each party settles on a nominee. Then they head to the House floor.
It is the full House that elects the speaker. At this point, nearly unanimous party loyalty takes over; the sheep go quietly into their pen without the need of dogs nipping at their heels. Even if O’Conner votes for his Ohio colleague Rep. Tim Ryan rather than Pelosi in conference, he’s almost certain to opt for Pelosi over, say, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the probable GOP nominee. So far, so unsurprising.
But let’s look more closely at the math. Let’s assume, as is reasonable, that about half of the 87 nonincumbent anti-Pelosi Democrats will win election on Nov. 6. This allows us further to assume that Democrats end up with 230 House seats, including 55 members who say they don’t want Pelosi. Facing only 55 nay votes in conference, Pelosi would easily win nomination.
But let’s say those 55 members pledged to vote against her on the floor. Suddenly they’d have leverage. She couldn’t get a majority on the House floor if all those Democrats abstained.
So the anti-Pelosi caucus, if it is real rather than a vehicle for rhetorical posturing, would have leverage in the Democratic caucus to demand another nominee. All they need is the political will to use it.
Every time one of these 87 “anti-Pelosi Democrats” debates, the moderator should ask, “Will you refuse to vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker on the House floor?”
Reporters and Republicans should similarly pin them down. Then we’ll know if they’re paper tigers or real lions. Do they have any serious intention of helping their party mature out of its extreme, ideological, and elitist ways?
